I agree. When I give numbers I usually say “We should keep the risk of AI takeover beneath 1%” (though I haven’t thought about it very much and mostly the numbers seem less important than the qualitative standard of evidence).
I think that 10% is obviously too high. I think that a society making reasonable tradeoffs could end up with 1% risk, but that it’s not something a government should allow AI developers to do without broader public input (and I suspect that our society would not choose to take this level of risk).
I agree. When I give numbers I usually say “We should keep the risk of AI takeover beneath 1%” (though I haven’t thought about it very much and mostly the numbers seem less important than the qualitative standard of evidence).
I think that 10% is obviously too high. I think that a society making reasonable tradeoffs could end up with 1% risk, but that it’s not something a government should allow AI developers to do without broader public input (and I suspect that our society would not choose to take this level of risk).
Cool, makes sense. Seems like we are mostly on the same page on this subpoint.