Separately, I think the effective animal activism community should be much clearer on a long-term strategy to inform their prioritization. By when do we expect to get meat alternatives that are competitive on taste and price? At that point, how many people do we expect to go vegetarian? Is there a date by which we expect >50% of the developed-world population to go vegetarian? To what degree are policies shaped by precedents from other countries?
These thoughts seem both really important and quite deep and thoughtful.
I don’t know the answer at all, but I have a few questions that might be useful (they might advance discussion/ intent). Please feel free to answer if it makes sense.
Is this related to what people call a “theory of victory” or vision?
If so, I have questions about the use of “theory of victory”. I’m uncertain, in the sense I want to learn more, about the value of a “theory of victory” in farm animal welfare.
If we reduced animal suffering by 50-90% in a fairly short time, that seems really good and productive. What does a theory of victory contribute in addition to that?
Maybe it provide a “focal” or “tipping point”, or is useful for morale, rhetoric, getting further allies or resources?
Maybe it has coordination value. For example, if we knew at “year Y” that meat alternatives would be at “cost parity”, coordinating many other campaigns and activities at the same time would be useful
Are you imagining this “long-term strategy” to come from the EA community (maybe in the sense of EA farm animal leaders agreeing, or people brainstorming more generally, or Rethink Priorities spinning up a project), or do you think it would come from a more external source?
I’m not certain, but I’m probably not very optimistic about large-scale shifts from meat consumption in a short time frame[1]. I’m interested in facts or even just a formidable narrative that could change this non-optimistic view. Do you or anyone else know any thoughts about this?
The people I have met in the past, who advance the idea of a major, upcoming, shift, seem to rely on narratives focused on personal dietary change. Upon examination, their views seem really inconsistent with data that the % of the population that is vegan/vegetarian seems to be flat over decades.
To me, some groups or initiatives seem to be communicating mainly with subcultures that are historically receptive to animal welfare. It seems the related /consequent information environment could unduly influence their judgement.
I share your general pessimism, but I’m curious if bigger shifts are possible on a 10-30y timescale. I think progress in alternative protein might help with that, and I’d like to have better forecasts on how that will develop, and what the implications are.
A “theory of victory” might be premised on assuming success, which would be a bad assumption to make, but insofar as we’re not doing that, that’s what I have in mind.
I expect this long-term strategy to come from EA; don’t really think anyone else would do a good job (though of course happy to be surprised).
These thoughts seem both really important and quite deep and thoughtful.
I don’t know the answer at all, but I have a few questions that might be useful (they might advance discussion/ intent). Please feel free to answer if it makes sense.
Is this related to what people call a “theory of victory” or vision?
If so, I have questions about the use of “theory of victory”. I’m uncertain, in the sense I want to learn more, about the value of a “theory of victory” in farm animal welfare.
If we reduced animal suffering by 50-90% in a fairly short time, that seems really good and productive. What does a theory of victory contribute in addition to that?
Maybe it provide a “focal” or “tipping point”, or is useful for morale, rhetoric, getting further allies or resources?
Maybe it has coordination value. For example, if we knew at “year Y” that meat alternatives would be at “cost parity”, coordinating many other campaigns and activities at the same time would be useful
Are you imagining this “long-term strategy” to come from the EA community (maybe in the sense of EA farm animal leaders agreeing, or people brainstorming more generally, or Rethink Priorities spinning up a project), or do you think it would come from a more external source?
I’m not certain, but I’m probably not very optimistic about large-scale shifts from meat consumption in a short time frame[1]. I’m interested in facts or even just a formidable narrative that could change this non-optimistic view. Do you or anyone else know any thoughts about this?
The people I have met in the past, who advance the idea of a major, upcoming, shift, seem to rely on narratives focused on personal dietary change. Upon examination, their views seem really inconsistent with data that the % of the population that is vegan/vegetarian seems to be flat over decades.
To me, some groups or initiatives seem to be communicating mainly with subcultures that are historically receptive to animal welfare. It seems the related /consequent information environment could unduly influence their judgement.
I share your general pessimism, but I’m curious if bigger shifts are possible on a 10-30y timescale. I think progress in alternative protein might help with that, and I’d like to have better forecasts on how that will develop, and what the implications are.
A “theory of victory” might be premised on assuming success, which would be a bad assumption to make, but insofar as we’re not doing that, that’s what I have in mind.
I expect this long-term strategy to come from EA; don’t really think anyone else would do a good job (though of course happy to be surprised).