I was one of the people who helped draft the constitutional amendment and launch the initiative. My quick takes:
My forecast had been a 3% chance of the initiative passing*, with a best guess of ~44% of voters in favor. So I was mildly disappointed by the results.
37% is pretty good; many ambitious initiatives (with real rather than symbolic effects) that aren’t right-wing-populist have had much worse failures.
In Swiss politics, initiatives that fail with 30-50% of voters in favor generally aren’t regarded as total failures. They are generally perceived to lend symbolic support in favor of the issue.
I find it fairly encouraging that 37% of a mostly meat-eating population are voting in favor of fairly costly measures that would negatively affect them personally on a daily basis. Initial polls even suggested that 55% were in favor (but as voters got more informed, and as the countercampaign (with ~5x more funding) played out, it got lower).
(* An initiative passing doesn’t just require a majority of the voters, but also a majority of the voters in a majority of cantons (states), which is a target that’s much harder to hit for non-conservative initiatives. Even if >50% of the voters were in favor, this would’ve been unlikely to happen.)
Separately, I think the effective animal activism community should be much clearer on a long-term strategy to inform their prioritization. By when do we expect to get meat alternatives that are competitive on taste and price? At that point, how many people do we expect to go vegetarian? Is there a date by which we expect >50% of the developed-world population to go vegetarian? To what degree are policies shaped by precedents from other countries? I think this sort of thinking has happened to a substantial degree for AI alignment/deployment, but not much for animal activism. Instead, everyone is running cost-effectiveness analyses with relatively short time horizons and a direct focus on animal lives improved. (This might be reasonable if you’re very pessimistic about large-scale shifts away from meat consumption anytime soon.)
These sorts of macrostrategic considerations could then inform whether to let an initiative like this one fail, or to make a concerted effort to actually win it, e.g., deploying a campaign budget of $5m, an experienced campaign team, plus a data science team.
Given that a majority of (the voter majority of) cantons needs to be in favor (“Ständemehr”), a ~16 percentage point increase in yes voters would have allowed for the initiative to pass. That’s a pretty large difference.
Things that could have been done to make it more likely that the initiative passes:
Release shocking results of an undercover investigation ~2 weeks before the vote. Maybe this could have led to a 2-10% increase?
Have a much larger campaign budget ($5m or so). Maybe another 2-7%?
So with some extra resources and luck, this may have been possible to win, perhaps.
Release shocking results of an undercover investigation ~2 weeks before the vote. Maybe this could have led to a 2-10% increase?
My understanding is, that they did try to do this with an undercover investigation report on poultry farming. But it was only in the news for a very short time and I’m guessing didn’t have a large effect.
A further thing might have helped:
Show clearly how the initiative would have improved animal welfare. The whole campaign was a bit of a mess in this regard. In the “voter information booklet” the only clearly understandable improvement was about maximum livestocks – which only affected laying hens. This lead to this underwhelming infographic in favour of the initiative [left column: current standards, righ column: standards if initiative passes].
The initiative committee does claim on their website, that the initiative will lead to more living space for farmed animals. But it never advertised how much. I struggled to find the space requirement information with a quick google search, before a national newspaper reported on it.
I was one of the people who helped draft the constitutional amendment and launch the initiative.
This project seems hard and important. Your work seems impactful, as you mentioned, it seems noticeable and impressive to 37% support of banning a harmful industry.
As Mo Putera also suggested, would it make sense to further write up what you and others did on this project?
Maybe a write up would add depth, communicate the challenges faced, publicize the project, as well as give some sense of how to get started on similar object level work?
For example, I have no idea how to get a “constitutional initiative” started, or “how connected” someone would need to be (which could be easier because of EA networks/EA aligned people).
Useful work on animal welfare policy seems like it would apply to other initiatives.
(I understand you are busy. Maybe it make sense to hire an assistant or use some other service to help write this up?)
The short version is that it’s pretty easy for anyone to launch one if you have $500k in funding, it’s really hard to get the wording of the constitutional amendment right, and the base rate of initiatives passing is just ~10% so it’s hard to actually be successful. I already published a similar write-up here, which explains some of the background, and there is a general overview of ballot measures.
I’m not planning to produce a longer write-up because I don’t expect me producing a write-up will directly enable useful work. I don’t expect more Swiss ballot initiatives to be especially promising (though there might be cool ideas around), and ballot initiatives work quite differently elsewhere. The basics of how Swiss ballot initiatives work are easy to google and well-documented in the media (including English ones). I also wasn’t involved with the campaigning, so I can’t really comment on that.
Separately, I think the effective animal activism community should be much clearer on a long-term strategy to inform their prioritization. By when do we expect to get meat alternatives that are competitive on taste and price? At that point, how many people do we expect to go vegetarian? Is there a date by which we expect >50% of the developed-world population to go vegetarian? To what degree are policies shaped by precedents from other countries?
These thoughts seem both really important and quite deep and thoughtful.
I don’t know the answer at all, but I have a few questions that might be useful (they might advance discussion/ intent). Please feel free to answer if it makes sense.
Is this related to what people call a “theory of victory” or vision?
If so, I have questions about the use of “theory of victory”. I’m uncertain, in the sense I want to learn more, about the value of a “theory of victory” in farm animal welfare.
If we reduced animal suffering by 50-90% in a fairly short time, that seems really good and productive. What does a theory of victory contribute in addition to that?
Maybe it provide a “focal” or “tipping point”, or is useful for morale, rhetoric, getting further allies or resources?
Maybe it has coordination value. For example, if we knew at “year Y” that meat alternatives would be at “cost parity”, coordinating many other campaigns and activities at the same time would be useful
Are you imagining this “long-term strategy” to come from the EA community (maybe in the sense of EA farm animal leaders agreeing, or people brainstorming more generally, or Rethink Priorities spinning up a project), or do you think it would come from a more external source?
I’m not certain, but I’m probably not very optimistic about large-scale shifts from meat consumption in a short time frame[1]. I’m interested in facts or even just a formidable narrative that could change this non-optimistic view. Do you or anyone else know any thoughts about this?
The people I have met in the past, who advance the idea of a major, upcoming, shift, seem to rely on narratives focused on personal dietary change. Upon examination, their views seem really inconsistent with data that the % of the population that is vegan/vegetarian seems to be flat over decades.
To me, some groups or initiatives seem to be communicating mainly with subcultures that are historically receptive to animal welfare. It seems the related /consequent information environment could unduly influence their judgement.
I share your general pessimism, but I’m curious if bigger shifts are possible on a 10-30y timescale. I think progress in alternative protein might help with that, and I’d like to have better forecasts on how that will develop, and what the implications are.
A “theory of victory” might be premised on assuming success, which would be a bad assumption to make, but insofar as we’re not doing that, that’s what I have in mind.
I expect this long-term strategy to come from EA; don’t really think anyone else would do a good job (though of course happy to be surprised).
I was one of the people who helped draft the constitutional amendment and launch the initiative. My quick takes:
My forecast had been a 3% chance of the initiative passing*, with a best guess of ~44% of voters in favor. So I was mildly disappointed by the results.
37% is pretty good; many ambitious initiatives (with real rather than symbolic effects) that aren’t right-wing-populist have had much worse failures.
In Swiss politics, initiatives that fail with 30-50% of voters in favor generally aren’t regarded as total failures. They are generally perceived to lend symbolic support in favor of the issue.
I find it fairly encouraging that 37% of a mostly meat-eating population are voting in favor of fairly costly measures that would negatively affect them personally on a daily basis. Initial polls even suggested that 55% were in favor (but as voters got more informed, and as the countercampaign (with ~5x more funding) played out, it got lower).
(* An initiative passing doesn’t just require a majority of the voters, but also a majority of the voters in a majority of cantons (states), which is a target that’s much harder to hit for non-conservative initiatives. Even if >50% of the voters were in favor, this would’ve been unlikely to happen.)
Separately, I think the effective animal activism community should be much clearer on a long-term strategy to inform their prioritization. By when do we expect to get meat alternatives that are competitive on taste and price? At that point, how many people do we expect to go vegetarian? Is there a date by which we expect >50% of the developed-world population to go vegetarian? To what degree are policies shaped by precedents from other countries? I think this sort of thinking has happened to a substantial degree for AI alignment/deployment, but not much for animal activism. Instead, everyone is running cost-effectiveness analyses with relatively short time horizons and a direct focus on animal lives improved. (This might be reasonable if you’re very pessimistic about large-scale shifts away from meat consumption anytime soon.)
These sorts of macrostrategic considerations could then inform whether to let an initiative like this one fail, or to make a concerted effort to actually win it, e.g., deploying a campaign budget of $5m, an experienced campaign team, plus a data science team.
Given that a majority of (the voter majority of) cantons needs to be in favor (“Ständemehr”), a ~16 percentage point increase in yes voters would have allowed for the initiative to pass. That’s a pretty large difference.
Things that could have been done to make it more likely that the initiative passes:
Release shocking results of an undercover investigation ~2 weeks before the vote. Maybe this could have led to a 2-10% increase?
Have a much larger campaign budget ($5m or so). Maybe another 2-7%?
So with some extra resources and luck, this may have been possible to win, perhaps.
My understanding is, that they did try to do this with an undercover investigation report on poultry farming. But it was only in the news for a very short time and I’m guessing didn’t have a large effect.
A further thing might have helped:
Show clearly how the initiative would have improved animal welfare.
The whole campaign was a bit of a mess in this regard. In the “voter information booklet” the only clearly understandable improvement was about maximum livestocks – which only affected laying hens. This lead to this underwhelming infographic in favour of the initiative [left column: current standards, righ column: standards if initiative passes].
The initiative committee does claim on their website, that the initiative will lead to more living space for farmed animals. But it never advertised how much. I struggled to find the space requirement information with a quick google search, before a national newspaper reported on it.
Excellent points, thank you!
This project seems hard and important. Your work seems impactful, as you mentioned, it seems noticeable and impressive to 37% support of banning a harmful industry.
As Mo Putera also suggested, would it make sense to further write up what you and others did on this project?
Maybe a write up would add depth, communicate the challenges faced, publicize the project, as well as give some sense of how to get started on similar object level work?
For example, I have no idea how to get a “constitutional initiative” started, or “how connected” someone would need to be (which could be easier because of EA networks/EA aligned people).
Useful work on animal welfare policy seems like it would apply to other initiatives.
(I understand you are busy. Maybe it make sense to hire an assistant or use some other service to help write this up?)
The short version is that it’s pretty easy for anyone to launch one if you have $500k in funding, it’s really hard to get the wording of the constitutional amendment right, and the base rate of initiatives passing is just ~10% so it’s hard to actually be successful. I already published a similar write-up here, which explains some of the background, and there is a general overview of ballot measures.
I’m not planning to produce a longer write-up because I don’t expect me producing a write-up will directly enable useful work. I don’t expect more Swiss ballot initiatives to be especially promising (though there might be cool ideas around), and ballot initiatives work quite differently elsewhere. The basics of how Swiss ballot initiatives work are easy to google and well-documented in the media (including English ones). I also wasn’t involved with the campaigning, so I can’t really comment on that.
These thoughts seem both really important and quite deep and thoughtful.
I don’t know the answer at all, but I have a few questions that might be useful (they might advance discussion/ intent). Please feel free to answer if it makes sense.
Is this related to what people call a “theory of victory” or vision?
If so, I have questions about the use of “theory of victory”. I’m uncertain, in the sense I want to learn more, about the value of a “theory of victory” in farm animal welfare.
If we reduced animal suffering by 50-90% in a fairly short time, that seems really good and productive. What does a theory of victory contribute in addition to that?
Maybe it provide a “focal” or “tipping point”, or is useful for morale, rhetoric, getting further allies or resources?
Maybe it has coordination value. For example, if we knew at “year Y” that meat alternatives would be at “cost parity”, coordinating many other campaigns and activities at the same time would be useful
Are you imagining this “long-term strategy” to come from the EA community (maybe in the sense of EA farm animal leaders agreeing, or people brainstorming more generally, or Rethink Priorities spinning up a project), or do you think it would come from a more external source?
I’m not certain, but I’m probably not very optimistic about large-scale shifts from meat consumption in a short time frame[1]. I’m interested in facts or even just a formidable narrative that could change this non-optimistic view. Do you or anyone else know any thoughts about this?
The people I have met in the past, who advance the idea of a major, upcoming, shift, seem to rely on narratives focused on personal dietary change. Upon examination, their views seem really inconsistent with data that the % of the population that is vegan/vegetarian seems to be flat over decades.
To me, some groups or initiatives seem to be communicating mainly with subcultures that are historically receptive to animal welfare. It seems the related /consequent information environment could unduly influence their judgement.
I share your general pessimism, but I’m curious if bigger shifts are possible on a 10-30y timescale. I think progress in alternative protein might help with that, and I’d like to have better forecasts on how that will develop, and what the implications are.
A “theory of victory” might be premised on assuming success, which would be a bad assumption to make, but insofar as we’re not doing that, that’s what I have in mind.
I expect this long-term strategy to come from EA; don’t really think anyone else would do a good job (though of course happy to be surprised).