You generally shouldn’t take Forum posts as seriously as peer-reviewed papers in top journals
I suspect I would advise taking them less seriously than you would advise, but I’m not sure.
It could also imply that EA should have fewer and larger orgs, but that’s a question too complicated for this comment to cover
I think there might be a weak conventional consensus in that direction, yes. By looking at the conventional wisdom on this point, we don’t have deal with the complicatedness of the question—that’s kind of my whole point. But even more importantly, perhaps fewer EA orgs that are not any larger; perhaps only two EA orgs (I’m thinking of 80k and OpenPhil; I’m not counting CHAI as an EA org). There is not some fixed quantity of people that need to be employed in EA orgs! Conventional wisdom would suggest, I think, that EAs should mostly be working at normal, high-quality organizations/universities, getting experience under the mentorship of highly qualified (probably non-EA) people.
I suspect I would advise taking them less seriously than you would advise, but I’m not sure.
The range of quality in Forum posts is… wide, so it’s hard to say anything about them as a group. I thought for a while about how to phrase that sentence and could only come up with the mealy-mouthed version you read.
But even more importantly, perhaps fewer EA orgs that are not any larger.
Maybe? I’d be happy to see a huge number of additional charities at the “median GiveWell grantee” level, and someone has to start those charities. Doesn’t have to be people in EA — maybe the talent pool is simply too thin right now — but there’s plenty of room for people to create organizations focused on important causes.
(But maybe you’re talking about meta orgs only, in which case I’d need a lot more community data to know how I feel.)
Conventional wisdom would suggest, I think, that EAs should mostly be working at normal, high-quality organizations/universities, getting experience under the mentorship of highly qualified (probably non-EA) people.
I agree, and I also think this is what EA people are mostly doing.
When I open Swapcard for the most recent EA Global, and look at the first 20 attendees alphabetically (with jobs listed), I see:
Seven people in academia (students or professors); one is at the Global Priorities Institute, but it still seems like “studying econ at Oxford” would be a good conventional-wisdom thing to do (I’d be happy to yield on this, though)
Six people working in conventional jobs (this includes one each from Wave and Momentum, but despite being linked to EA, both are normal tech companies, and Wave at least has done very well by conventional standards)
One person in policy
Six people at nonprofit orgs focused on EA things
Glancing through the rest of the list, I’d say it leans toward more “EA jobs” than not, but this is a group that is vastly skewed in favor of “doing EA stuff” compared to the broad EA community as a whole, and it’s still not obvious that the people with EA jobs/headed for EA jobs are a majority.
(The data gets even messier if you’re willing to count, say, an Open Philanthropy researcher as someone doing a conventionally wise thing, since you seem to think OP should keep existing.)
Overall, I’d guess that most people trying to maximize their impact with EA in mind are doing so via policy work, earning-to-give,[1] or other conventional-looking strategies; this just gets hidden by the greater visibility of people in EA roles.
I’d love to hear counterarguments to this — I’ve held this belief for a long time, it feels uncommon, and there’s a good chance I’m just wrong.
This isn’t a conventional way to use money, but the part where you earn money is probably very conventional (get professional skill, use professional skill in expected way, climb the ladder of your discipline).
This is very high-quality. No disputes just clarifications.
I don’t just mean meta-orgs.
I think working for a well-financed grantmaking organization is not outrageously unconventional, although I suspect most lean on part-time work from well-respected academics more than OpenPhil does.
And I think 80k may just be an exception (a minor one, to some extent), borne out of an unusually clear gap in the market. I think some of their work should be done in academia instead (basically whatever work it’s possible to do), but some of the very specific stuff like the jobs board wouldn’t fit there.
Also, if we imagine an Area Dad from an Onion Local News article, I don’t think he’s skepticism would be quite as pronounced for 80k as for other orgs like, e.g., an AI Safety camp.
Yeah, I’m not sure that people prioritizing the Forum over journal articles is a majority view, but it is definitely something that happens, and there are currents in EA that encourage this sort of thinking.
I’m not saying we should not be somewhat skeptical of journal articles. There are huge problems in the peer-review world. But forum/blogs posts, what your friends say, are not more reliable. And it is concerning that some elements of EA culture encourage you to think that they are.
Evidence for my claim, based on replies to some of Ineffective Altruism’s tweets (who makes a similar critique).
(If it is inappropriate for me to link to people’s Twitter replies in a critical way, let me know. I feel a little uncomfortable doing this, because my point is not to name and shame any particular person. But I’m doing it because it seems worth pushing back against the claim that “this doesn’t happen here.” I do not want to post a name-blurred screenshot because I think all replies in the thread are valuable information, not just the replies I share, so I want to enable people to click through.)
Upvoted this.
I suspect I would advise taking them less seriously than you would advise, but I’m not sure.
I think there might be a weak conventional consensus in that direction, yes. By looking at the conventional wisdom on this point, we don’t have deal with the complicatedness of the question—that’s kind of my whole point. But even more importantly, perhaps fewer EA orgs that are not any larger; perhaps only two EA orgs (I’m thinking of 80k and OpenPhil; I’m not counting CHAI as an EA org). There is not some fixed quantity of people that need to be employed in EA orgs! Conventional wisdom would suggest, I think, that EAs should mostly be working at normal, high-quality organizations/universities, getting experience under the mentorship of highly qualified (probably non-EA) people.
The range of quality in Forum posts is… wide, so it’s hard to say anything about them as a group. I thought for a while about how to phrase that sentence and could only come up with the mealy-mouthed version you read.
Maybe? I’d be happy to see a huge number of additional charities at the “median GiveWell grantee” level, and someone has to start those charities. Doesn’t have to be people in EA — maybe the talent pool is simply too thin right now — but there’s plenty of room for people to create organizations focused on important causes.
(But maybe you’re talking about meta orgs only, in which case I’d need a lot more community data to know how I feel.)
I agree, and I also think this is what EA people are mostly doing.
When I open Swapcard for the most recent EA Global, and look at the first 20 attendees alphabetically (with jobs listed), I see:
Seven people in academia (students or professors); one is at the Global Priorities Institute, but it still seems like “studying econ at Oxford” would be a good conventional-wisdom thing to do (I’d be happy to yield on this, though)
Six people working in conventional jobs (this includes one each from Wave and Momentum, but despite being linked to EA, both are normal tech companies, and Wave at least has done very well by conventional standards)
One person in policy
Six people at nonprofit orgs focused on EA things
Glancing through the rest of the list, I’d say it leans toward more “EA jobs” than not, but this is a group that is vastly skewed in favor of “doing EA stuff” compared to the broad EA community as a whole, and it’s still not obvious that the people with EA jobs/headed for EA jobs are a majority.
(The data gets even messier if you’re willing to count, say, an Open Philanthropy researcher as someone doing a conventionally wise thing, since you seem to think OP should keep existing.)
Overall, I’d guess that most people trying to maximize their impact with EA in mind are doing so via policy work, earning-to-give,[1] or other conventional-looking strategies; this just gets hidden by the greater visibility of people in EA roles.
I’d love to hear counterarguments to this — I’ve held this belief for a long time, it feels uncommon, and there’s a good chance I’m just wrong.
This isn’t a conventional way to use money, but the part where you earn money is probably very conventional (get professional skill, use professional skill in expected way, climb the ladder of your discipline).
This is very high-quality. No disputes just clarifications.
I don’t just mean meta-orgs.
I think working for a well-financed grantmaking organization is not outrageously unconventional, although I suspect most lean on part-time work from well-respected academics more than OpenPhil does.
And I think 80k may just be an exception (a minor one, to some extent), borne out of an unusually clear gap in the market. I think some of their work should be done in academia instead (basically whatever work it’s possible to do), but some of the very specific stuff like the jobs board wouldn’t fit there.
Also, if we imagine an Area Dad from an Onion Local News article, I don’t think he’s skepticism would be quite as pronounced for 80k as for other orgs like, e.g., an AI Safety camp.
Yeah, I’m not sure that people prioritizing the Forum over journal articles is a majority view, but it is definitely something that happens, and there are currents in EA that encourage this sort of thinking.
I’m not saying we should not be somewhat skeptical of journal articles. There are huge problems in the peer-review world. But forum/blogs posts, what your friends say, are not more reliable. And it is concerning that some elements of EA culture encourage you to think that they are.
Evidence for my claim, based on replies to some of Ineffective Altruism’s tweets (who makes a similar critique).
1: https://twitter.com/IneffectiveAlt4/status/1630853478053560321?s=20 Look at replies in this thread
2: https://twitter.com/NathanpmYoung/status/1630637375205576704?s=20 Look at all the various replies in this thread
(If it is inappropriate for me to link to people’s Twitter replies in a critical way, let me know. I feel a little uncomfortable doing this, because my point is not to name and shame any particular person. But I’m doing it because it seems worth pushing back against the claim that “this doesn’t happen here.” I do not want to post a name-blurred screenshot because I think all replies in the thread are valuable information, not just the replies I share, so I want to enable people to click through.)