Regarding your “Do we need growth in rich countries?” section—this strikes me as a failure of imagination. You are willing to look back across history and say that life has gotten vastly better in many ways with advancing science and industry- -- modern medicine, the conveniences of travel and telecommunications, etc. But you don’t seem willing to make the obvious extrapolation into the future—in a more prosperous and more energy-abundant world, don’t you expect that society could become even better? People could afford better medical care, society could more easily afford to redistribute and create equality, society might even become more participatory and democratic?
People in 1960 would have made your same argument—“The USA and Europe don’t need growth; we’re already so prosperous, we’ve basically achieved everything you could possibly want.” But looking back, we can tell that they were wrong—life has improved in important ways since 1960, and even since 1990! What makes your argument any more likely to stand the test of time?
Q. What is a new non-AI technology that has played an important role in the development of your world?
A. Improved governance technology has helped societies to better navigate the “bulldozer vs vetocracy” axis of community decision-making processes. Using advanced coordination mechanisms like assurance contracts, and clever systems (like Glen Weyl’s “SALSA” proposal) for pricing externalities and public goods, it’s become easier for societies to flexibly make net-positive changes and fairly compensate anyone affected by downsides. This improved governance tech has made it easier to build lots of new infrastructure while minimizing disruption. Included in that new infrastructure is a LOT of new clean power.
Cheap desalinization changes the map, allowing farming and habitation of previously desolate desert areas. Whole downtown areas of desert cities can be covered with shade canopies and air-conditioned with power from nearby solar farms.
Carbon dioxide can be captured directly from the air at scale, making climate change a thing of the past.
Freed from the pressing need to economize on fuel, vehicles like airplanes, container ships, and self-driving cars can simply travel at higher speeds, getting people and goods to their destinations faster.
Indoor farming using artificial light becomes cheaper; instead of shipping fruit from the opposite hemisphere, people can enjoy local, fresh fruit year-round.
Q. What is a new social institution that has played an important role in the development of your world?
A. New institutions have been as impactful over recent decades as near-human-level AI technology. Together, these trends have had a multiplicative effect — AI-assisted research makes evaluating potential reforms easier, and reforms enable society to more flexibly roll out new technologies and gracefully accommodate changes. Futarchy has been transformative for national governments; on the local scale, “affinity cities” and quadratic funding have been notable trends. In the 2030s, the increasing fidelity of VR allows productive remote working even across international and language boundaries. Freed from needing to live where they work, young people choose places that cater to unique interests. Small towns seeking growth and investment advertise themselves as open to newcomers; communities (religious beliefs, hobbies like surfing, subcultures like heavy-metal fans, etc) select the most suitable town and use assurance contracts to subsidize a critical mass of early-adopters to move and create the new hub. This has turned previously indistinct towns to a flourishing cultural network. Meanwhile, Quadratic Funding (like a hybrid of local budget and donation-matching system, usually funded by land value taxes) helps support community institutions like libraries, parks, and small businesses by rewarding small-dollar donations made by citizens. The most radical expression of institutional experimentation can be found in the constellation of “charter cities” sprinkled across the world, predominantly in Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia. While affinity cities experiment with culture and lifestyle, cities like Prospera Honduras have attained partial legal sovereignty, giving them the ability to experiment with innovative regulatory systems much like china’s provinces.
I agree that more GDP in rich countries may lead to improvements in many areas. However, I think that 1) we can’t afford it given the problems of climate change, the rest of planetary boundaries, and resource scarcity; and 2) we may be able to improve in many areas without further growth, by investing on those areas which matter and shrinking destructive industries. Due to 1), we may need to compromise. If 1) isn’t true, then great, let’s continue the improvements! Thanks for the link to your utopia project, looks really interesting!
Regarding your “Do we need growth in rich countries?” section—this strikes me as a failure of imagination. You are willing to look back across history and say that life has gotten vastly better in many ways with advancing science and industry- -- modern medicine, the conveniences of travel and telecommunications, etc. But you don’t seem willing to make the obvious extrapolation into the future—in a more prosperous and more energy-abundant world, don’t you expect that society could become even better? People could afford better medical care, society could more easily afford to redistribute and create equality, society might even become more participatory and democratic?
People in 1960 would have made your same argument—“The USA and Europe don’t need growth; we’re already so prosperous, we’ve basically achieved everything you could possibly want.” But looking back, we can tell that they were wrong—life has improved in important ways since 1960, and even since 1990! What makes your argument any more likely to stand the test of time?
In other words—sure, the USA doesn’t do quite as well on quality-of-life metrics as some countries in northern Europe which have a slightly lower GDP. It would be great to learn from those countries. But also, neither the USA or Europe represent the highest potential of human civilization—so much more is possible! For a vision of what this better future might look like, here is an optimistic, utopian story I put together with some friends of mine that tries to illustrate what a fairer, more democratic, and more abundant world could be constructed. Here are some relevant quotes from that project:
I agree that more GDP in rich countries may lead to improvements in many areas. However, I think that 1) we can’t afford it given the problems of climate change, the rest of planetary boundaries, and resource scarcity; and 2) we may be able to improve in many areas without further growth, by investing on those areas which matter and shrinking destructive industries. Due to 1), we may need to compromise. If 1) isn’t true, then great, let’s continue the improvements!
Thanks for the link to your utopia project, looks really interesting!