I don’t have strong opinions on the object-level of whether marginal increases in growth in rich countries is net good (I think I have substantially more sympathy than most EAs that it’s net bad). But I think the argument is unlikely to primarily route through climate change, for fairly simple reasons.
1. Transformative AI and engineered pandemics are substantially more important than climate change.
2. GDP growth probably has a substantial impact on AI and pandemics.
3. Climate change and environmental degradation also has some impact on AI and pandemics.
4. However, I think it will be quite surprising if the third-order impact of GDP growth → climate change and environmental degradation → AI and pandemics is higher than the second-order impact of GDP growth → AI and pandemics.
5. Thus, to investigate whether growth in rich countries on the margin is net good or bad, almost all of the “action” will come from investigating the effects of growth on AI, and maybe bio/pandemics as well. It is unlikely to come from two layers of indirection.
I’m curious where the crux is. My current guess is that the main crux between me and the OP is (1). I agree that this is a nontrivial question (one of the most important cause prioritization questions) and I do not plan to answer it here.
I don’t have strong opinions on the object-level of whether marginal increases in growth in rich countries is net good (I think I have substantially more sympathy than most EAs that it’s net bad). But I think the argument is unlikely to primarily route through climate change, for fairly simple reasons.
1. Transformative AI and engineered pandemics are substantially more important than climate change.
2. GDP growth probably has a substantial impact on AI and pandemics.
3. Climate change and environmental degradation also has some impact on AI and pandemics.
4. However, I think it will be quite surprising if the third-order impact of GDP growth → climate change and environmental degradation → AI and pandemics is higher than the second-order impact of GDP growth → AI and pandemics.
5. Thus, to investigate whether growth in rich countries on the margin is net good or bad, almost all of the “action” will come from investigating the effects of growth on AI, and maybe bio/pandemics as well. It is unlikely to come from two layers of indirection.
I’m curious where the crux is. My current guess is that the main crux between me and the OP is (1). I agree that this is a nontrivial question (one of the most important cause prioritization questions) and I do not plan to answer it here.