I would strongly assert (i) and (ii) -- ACE has used money to hire more research staff and a good amount of marginal research staff time is going into harder to evaluate charities (Good Food Institute is the most prominent example, but there’s ongoing work into cultured meat, protests, wild animal suffering, etc.).
I would weakly assert (iii) -- I don’t really know right now whether the EV for these “new” charities is higher (if I did know that, we could argue that maybe they should be recommended now). However, the confidence bounds on something like political work or wild animal suffering, in my personal intuitions, dwarf current ACE top charities in both directions (i.e., a decent chance of being a lot better or a lot worse than current top charities). I hope to see ACE tackle these kinds of things soon!
I would strongly assert (i) and (ii) -- ACE has used money to hire more research staff and a good amount of marginal research staff time is going into harder to evaluate charities (Good Food Institute is the most prominent example, but there’s ongoing work into cultured meat, protests, wild animal suffering, etc.).
I would weakly assert (iii) -- I don’t really know right now whether the EV for these “new” charities is higher (if I did know that, we could argue that maybe they should be recommended now). However, the confidence bounds on something like political work or wild animal suffering, in my personal intuitions, dwarf current ACE top charities in both directions (i.e., a decent chance of being a lot better or a lot worse than current top charities). I hope to see ACE tackle these kinds of things soon!