I recently surveyed c.100 people working in IT to ask them about the extent to which they thought that AI would speed up coding. (Presumably if coding can be done faster, AI can be created more quickly too)
They estimated that coding can be done twice as fast thanks to AI tools, and that’s before giving any credit to AI getting better in the future.
There are several reasons not to trust the survey too blindly, which I outline in my post on the topic.
I recently surveyed c.100 people working in IT to ask them about the extent to which they thought that AI would speed up coding. (Presumably if coding can be done faster, AI can be created more quickly too)
They estimated that coding can be done twice as fast thanks to AI tools, and that’s before giving any credit to AI getting better in the future.
There are several reasons not to trust the survey too blindly, which I outline in my post on the topic.
Wait, which mechanisms did you have in mind?
AI → software coded up faster → more software people go into AI → AI becomes more popular?
AI → coding for AI research is easier → more AI research
AI → code to implement neural networks written faster → AI implemented more quickly (afaik not too big a factor? I might be wrong though)
AI → code that writes e.g. symbolic AI from scratch → AI?
I don’t recommend that you update much on what I had in mind, since I wasn’t thinking very hard about this point. What I had in mind was:
AI → coding for AI research is easier → more AI research
If someone discussed it with me, I might have also mentioned
AI → code to implement neural networks written faster → AI implemented more quickly
AI → code that writes e.g. symbolic AI from scratch → AI?
(I wasn’t particularly thinking of that though)
I guess the labour market effects (i.e. the below) might also apply, but I wasn’t thinking of that
AI → software coded up faster → more software people go into AI → AI becomes more popular?