I downvoted this. I’m not sure if that was an appropriate way to express my views about your comment, but I think you should lift your pledge to second strike, and I think it’s bad that you pledged to do so in the first place.
I think one important disanalogy between real nuclear strategy and this game is that there’s kind of no reason to press the button, which means that for someone pressing the button, we don’t really understand their motives, which makes it less clear that this kind of comment addresses their motives.
Consider that last time LessWrong was persuaded to destroy itself, it was approximately by accident. Especially considering the context of the event we’re commemorating was essentially another accident, I think the most likely story for why one of the sites gets destroyed is not intentional, and thus not affected by precommitments to retaliate.
Yeah, that did occur to me. I think it’s more likely that he’s telling the truth, and even if he’s lying, I think it’s worth engaging as if he’s sincere, since other people might sincerely believe the same things.
I downvoted this. I’m not sure if that was an appropriate way to express my views about your comment, but I think you should lift your pledge to second strike, and I think it’s bad that you pledged to do so in the first place.
I think one important disanalogy between real nuclear strategy and this game is that there’s kind of no reason to press the button, which means that for someone pressing the button, we don’t really understand their motives, which makes it less clear that this kind of comment addresses their motives.
Consider that last time LessWrong was persuaded to destroy itself, it was approximately by accident. Especially considering the context of the event we’re commemorating was essentially another accident, I think the most likely story for why one of the sites gets destroyed is not intentional, and thus not affected by precommitments to retaliate.
All of this seems consistent with Peter’s pledge to second strike being +EV, as long as he’s lying.
Yeah, that did occur to me. I think it’s more likely that he’s telling the truth, and even if he’s lying, I think it’s worth engaging as if he’s sincere, since other people might sincerely believe the same things.
(I’ve also downvoted Peter’s comment when I first read it, for similar reasons).