I am also sceptical about the central scenario. Protests have disproportionately high visibility relative to the numbers participating. If the 28% reduction Brauner et al estimate was the result of banning protests, parades, sporting events, concerts, political rallies, beach gatherings, lectures, house parties, crowded gyms and restaurants, yoga classes, and many other categories of >10 people gatherings, plus the indirect effects (e.g. on public transport etc) of these measures, then it seems unlikely to me that the recent protests could have an equivalent reverse impact, despite how relatively widespread they have been.
I think many of those examples would fall under their other categories like “Most Businesses Suspended” or “School Closure”. Things like ‘beach closures’ do not, but population density on beaches tends to be much lower than at protests (at least of the beaches I have been to).
Additionally, I worry that the protests might reduce other forms of social distancing. Imagine you are a moderate conservative, who had to cancel your son’s graduation and your daughter’s wedding, and hasn’t been able to go to confession for months. You wanted to go back to work, but all the experts told you that it was too dangerous, even though you knew you’d be careful. They even stopped you playing golf—you weren’t even allowed to do a couple of rounds by yourself, standing by yourself in the middle of the green! Now all of a sudden these so-called experts are joining the hippies in a chaotic screaming looting protest, with nary a six foot gap to be seen. How likely is it that you will trust them again?
I am also sceptical about the central scenario. Protests have disproportionately high visibility relative to the numbers participating. If the 28% reduction Brauner et al estimate was the result of banning protests, parades, sporting events, concerts, political rallies, beach gatherings, lectures, house parties, crowded gyms and restaurants, yoga classes, and many other categories of >10 people gatherings, plus the indirect effects (e.g. on public transport etc) of these measures, then it seems unlikely to me that the recent protests could have an equivalent reverse impact, despite how relatively widespread they have been.
I think many of those examples would fall under their other categories like “Most Businesses Suspended” or “School Closure”. Things like ‘beach closures’ do not, but population density on beaches tends to be much lower than at protests (at least of the beaches I have been to).
Additionally, I worry that the protests might reduce other forms of social distancing. Imagine you are a moderate conservative, who had to cancel your son’s graduation and your daughter’s wedding, and hasn’t been able to go to confession for months. You wanted to go back to work, but all the experts told you that it was too dangerous, even though you knew you’d be careful. They even stopped you playing golf—you weren’t even allowed to do a couple of rounds by yourself, standing by yourself in the middle of the green! Now all of a sudden these so-called experts are joining the hippies in a chaotic screaming looting protest, with nary a six foot gap to be seen. How likely is it that you will trust them again?