I think “economics of transformative AI” only matters in the narrow slice of worlds (maybe 20% of my probability?) where AI is powerful enough to transform the economy, but not powerful enough to kill everyone or to create a post-scarcity utopia. So I think you’re right.
It has some relevance to strategy as well, such as in terms of how fast we develop the tech and how broadly distributed we expect it to be, however there’s a limit to how much additional clarity we can expect to gain over short time period.
I think “economics of transformative AI” only matters in the narrow slice of worlds (maybe 20% of my probability?) where AI is powerful enough to transform the economy, but not powerful enough to kill everyone or to create a post-scarcity utopia. So I think you’re right.
It has some relevance to strategy as well, such as in terms of how fast we develop the tech and how broadly distributed we expect it to be, however there’s a limit to how much additional clarity we can expect to gain over short time period.