For the record, I see the new field of “economics of transformative AI” as overrated.
Economics has some useful frames, but it also tilts people towards being too “normy” on the impacts of AI and it doesn’t have a very good track record on advanced AI so far.
I’d much rather see multidisciplinary programs/conferences/research projects, including economics as just one of the perspectives represented, then economics of transformative AI qua economics of transformative AI.
(I’d be more enthusiastic about building economics of transformative AI as a field if we were starting five years ago, but these things take time and it’s pretty late in the game now, so I’m less enthusiastic about investing field-building effort here and more enthusiastic about pragmatic projects combining a variety of frames).
Things in AI have been moving fast, most economists seem to have expected it to have moved slower. Sorry, I don’t really want to get into more detail as writing a proper response would end up taking me more time than I want to spend defending this “Quick take”.
I think “economics of transformative AI” only matters in the narrow slice of worlds (maybe 20% of my probability?) where AI is powerful enough to transform the economy, but not powerful enough to kill everyone or to create a post-scarcity utopia. So I think you’re right.
It has some relevance to strategy as well, such as in terms of how fast we develop the tech and how broadly distributed we expect it to be, however there’s a limit to how much additional clarity we can expect to gain over short time period.
As an example, I expect political science and international relations to be better for looking at issues related to power distribution rather than economics (though the economic frame adds some value as well). Historical studies of coups seems pretty relevant as well.
When it comes to predicting future progress, I’d be much more interested in hearing the opinions of folks who combine knowledge of economics with knowledge of ML or computer hardware, rather than those who are solely economists. Forecasting seems like another relevant discipline, as is future studies and history of science.
For the record, I see the new field of “economics of transformative AI” as overrated.
Economics has some useful frames, but it also tilts people towards being too “normy” on the impacts of AI and it doesn’t have a very good track record on advanced AI so far.
I’d much rather see multidisciplinary programs/conferences/research projects, including economics as just one of the perspectives represented, then economics of transformative AI qua economics of transformative AI.
(I’d be more enthusiastic about building economics of transformative AI as a field if we were starting five years ago, but these things take time and it’s pretty late in the game now, so I’m less enthusiastic about investing field-building effort here and more enthusiastic about pragmatic projects combining a variety of frames).
(Could you elaborate on ‘economics doesn’t have a very good track record on advanced AI so far’? I haven’t heard this before)
Things in AI have been moving fast, most economists seem to have expected it to have moved slower. Sorry, I don’t really want to get into more detail as writing a proper response would end up taking me more time than I want to spend defending this “Quick take”.
I think “economics of transformative AI” only matters in the narrow slice of worlds (maybe 20% of my probability?) where AI is powerful enough to transform the economy, but not powerful enough to kill everyone or to create a post-scarcity utopia. So I think you’re right.
It has some relevance to strategy as well, such as in terms of how fast we develop the tech and how broadly distributed we expect it to be, however there’s a limit to how much additional clarity we can expect to gain over short time period.
What other disciplines would you want to see?
As an example, I expect political science and international relations to be better for looking at issues related to power distribution rather than economics (though the economic frame adds some value as well). Historical studies of coups seems pretty relevant as well.
When it comes to predicting future progress, I’d be much more interested in hearing the opinions of folks who combine knowledge of economics with knowledge of ML or computer hardware, rather than those who are solely economists. Forecasting seems like another relevant discipline, as is future studies and history of science.