Oh, I definitely agree that the guilt narrative has some truth to it too, and that the final position must be some mix of the two, with somewhere between a 10⁄90 and 90⁄10 split. But I’d definitely been neglecting the ‘we got used’ narrative, and had assumed others were too (though aprilsun’s comment suggests I might be incorrect about that).
I’d add that for different questions related to the future of EA, the different narratives change their mix. For example, the ‘we got used’ narrative is at its most relevant if asking about ‘all EAs except Sam’. But if asking about whether it is good to grow EA, it is relevant that we may get more Sams. And if asking ‘how much good or bad do people who associate with EA do?’ the ‘guilt’ narrative increases in importance.
I do think it’s an interesting question whether EA is prone to generate Sams at higher than the base rate. I think it’s pretty hard to tell from a single case, though.
Oh, I definitely agree that the guilt narrative has some truth to it too, and that the final position must be some mix of the two, with somewhere between a 10⁄90 and 90⁄10 split. But I’d definitely been neglecting the ‘we got used’ narrative, and had assumed others were too (though aprilsun’s comment suggests I might be incorrect about that).
I’d add that for different questions related to the future of EA, the different narratives change their mix. For example, the ‘we got used’ narrative is at its most relevant if asking about ‘all EAs except Sam’. But if asking about whether it is good to grow EA, it is relevant that we may get more Sams. And if asking ‘how much good or bad do people who associate with EA do?’ the ‘guilt’ narrative increases in importance.
I do think it’s an interesting question whether EA is prone to generate Sams at higher than the base rate. I think it’s pretty hard to tell from a single case, though.