What type of great power conflict do you have in mind here? “Extreme tail event” makes it sound like you’re thinking of a fairly large scale war, but great power conflict seems to refer to any military confrontation. E.g. I haven’t at all wrapped my head around a military confrontation between China and the US over Taiwan yet, and Metaculus is at ~20% for
Yeah that’s an interesting question. I guess what I had in mind here was the US and China basically destroying each others’ fabs or something along those lines (a compute shortage would make investment in AI labs less profitable, perhaps). But even that could increase investment as they strive to rebuild capacities? Maybe the extreme tail event that’d cause this is perpetual world peace happening!
Yeah that’s an interesting question. I guess what I had in mind here was the US and China basically destroying each others’ fabs or something along those lines (a compute shortage would make investment in AI labs less profitable, perhaps). But even that could increase investment as they strive to rebuild capacities? Maybe the extreme tail event that’d cause this is perpetual world peace happening!