Survey results for Q2, Q1 (hover for spoilers):
OpenAI: ~21%, ~13%
FHI: ~27%, ~19%
DeepMind: (no respondents declared this affiliation)
CHAI/Berkeley: 39%, 39%
MIRI: 80%, 70%
Open Philanthropy: ~35%, ~16%
Thanks for this Rob—I was going to post this myself but you beat me to it :)Also, wow—I was systematically wrong. I think my (relative) x-risk optimism affected my predictions majorly.
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Survey results for Q2, Q1 (hover for spoilers):
OpenAI: ~21%, ~13%
FHI: ~27%, ~19%
DeepMind: (no respondents declared this affiliation)
CHAI/Berkeley: 39%, 39%
MIRI: 80%, 70%
Open Philanthropy: ~35%, ~16%
Thanks for this Rob—I was going to post this myself but you beat me to it :)
Also, wow—I was systematically wrong. I think my (relative) x-risk optimism affected my predictions majorly.