SPOILER: My predictions for the mean answers from each org. The first number is for Q2, the second is for Q1 (EDIT: originally had the order of the questions wrong):OpenAI: 15%, 11%FHI: 11%, 7%DeepMind: 8%, 6%CHAI/Berkeley: 18%, 15%MIRI: 60%, 50%Open Philanthropy: 8%, 6%
Survey results for Q2, Q1 (hover for spoilers):
OpenAI: ~21%, ~13%
FHI: ~27%, ~19%
DeepMind: (no respondents declared this affiliation)
CHAI/Berkeley: 39%, 39%
MIRI: 80%, 70%
Open Philanthropy: ~35%, ~16%
Thanks for this Rob—I was going to post this myself but you beat me to it :)Also, wow—I was systematically wrong. I think my (relative) x-risk optimism affected my predictions majorly.
SPOILER: My predictions for the mean answers from each org. The first number is for Q2, the second is for Q1 (EDIT: originally had the order of the questions wrong):
OpenAI: 15%, 11%
FHI: 11%, 7%
DeepMind: 8%, 6%
CHAI/Berkeley: 18%, 15%
MIRI: 60%, 50%
Open Philanthropy: 8%, 6%
Survey results for Q2, Q1 (hover for spoilers):
OpenAI: ~21%, ~13%
FHI: ~27%, ~19%
DeepMind: (no respondents declared this affiliation)
CHAI/Berkeley: 39%, 39%
MIRI: 80%, 70%
Open Philanthropy: ~35%, ~16%
Thanks for this Rob—I was going to post this myself but you beat me to it :)
Also, wow—I was systematically wrong. I think my (relative) x-risk optimism affected my predictions majorly.