Considering the cost for live saved by the US government on average might not be the best measure? I suppose that having A Democrat and Office would lead to a certain amount additional spending but would it double the impact? On the other hand the Counterfactual spending might be much higher impact if we think for example that the Republicans will/foreign aid spending or funding for pandemic preparation. Wondering how these concerns were balanced.
Yeah I agree; I think my analysis there is very crude. The purpose was to establish an order-of-magnitude estimate based on a really simple model.
I think readers should feel free to ignore that part of the post. As I say in the last paragraph:
So my advice: if you’re deciding whether to donate to efforts to get Harris elected, plug in my “1 in 3 million” estimate into your own calculation—the one where you also plug in your beliefs about what’s good for the world—and see where the math takes you.
Considering the cost for live saved by the US government on average might not be the best measure? I suppose that having A Democrat and Office would lead to a certain amount additional spending but would it double the impact? On the other hand the Counterfactual spending might be much higher impact if we think for example that the Republicans will/foreign aid spending or funding for pandemic preparation. Wondering how these concerns were balanced.
Yeah I agree; I think my analysis there is very crude. The purpose was to establish an order-of-magnitude estimate based on a really simple model.
I think readers should feel free to ignore that part of the post. As I say in the last paragraph: