Yeah I agree; I think my analysis there is very crude. The purpose was to establish an order-of-magnitude estimate based on a really simple model.
I think readers should feel free to ignore that part of the post. As I say in the last paragraph:
So my advice: if you’re deciding whether to donate to efforts to get Harris elected, plug in my “1 in 3 million” estimate into your own calculation—the one where you also plug in your beliefs about what’s good for the world—and see where the math takes you.
Yeah I agree; I think my analysis there is very crude. The purpose was to establish an order-of-magnitude estimate based on a really simple model.
I think readers should feel free to ignore that part of the post. As I say in the last paragraph: