I hadn’t seen that and I agree that it looks like a serious negative update (though I don’t know what exactly it is measuring). Thanks for drawing it to my attention. I’m also increasingly worried about the continued unprecedentedly hot stretch we are in. I’d been assuming it was just one of these cases of a randomly hot year that will regress back to the previous trend, but as it drags on the hypothesis of there being something new happening does grow in plausibility.
Overall, ‘mixed’ might be a better summary of Climate.
It is nuanced, but I think the TLDR is that recent observations are within the expected range (the trend observed since 2009 is within the range expected by climate models, though the observations are noisy and uncertain, as are the models).
I hadn’t seen that and I agree that it looks like a serious negative update (though I don’t know what exactly it is measuring). Thanks for drawing it to my attention. I’m also increasingly worried about the continued unprecedentedly hot stretch we are in. I’d been assuming it was just one of these cases of a randomly hot year that will regress back to the previous trend, but as it drags on the hypothesis of there being something new happening does grow in plausibility.
Overall, ‘mixed’ might be a better summary of Climate.
Sorry for the delay!
Here is a good summary of whether or not the recent warming should make us worried more: https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-why-the-recent-acceleration-in-global-warming-is-what-scientists-expect/
It is nuanced, but I think the TLDR is that recent observations are within the expected range (the trend observed since 2009 is within the range expected by climate models, though the observations are noisy and uncertain, as are the models).