Agree with Acylhalide’s point—you only need to be non-Dutchbookable by bets that you could actually be exposed to.
To address a potential misunderstanding:
I agree with both Sharmake’s examples. But they don’t imply you have to maximise expected utility always. Just when the assumptions apply.
More generally: expected utility maximisation is an instrumental principle. But it is justified by some assumptions, which don’t always hold.
Agree with Acylhalide’s point—you only need to be non-Dutchbookable by bets that you could actually be exposed to.
To address a potential misunderstanding: I agree with both Sharmake’s examples. But they don’t imply you have to maximise expected utility always. Just when the assumptions apply.
More generally: expected utility maximisation is an instrumental principle. But it is justified by some assumptions, which don’t always hold.
I think the assumptions are usually true, though if they involve one-shot situations things change drastically.
Aren’t x-risk interventions and causes basically one-shot?
Uhm, yes, that seems right. That’s why this matters.