It’s great to try and analyze the cost-effectiveness of Veganuary. I’m thankful for this post and also for the responses by @Toni Vernelli and others.
While I appreciate the effort, I find it hard to agree with Vasco’s conclusions. There are many discounts in the analysis that feel pretty arbitrary to me. Toni has answered to this much better than I could. I’d just like to share a few personal impressions. These are of course biased, but might explain why I’m suspicious about the many downward adjustments (and lack of upward adjustments) in Vasco’s analysis:
Veganuary is quite prominent where I live. There are numerous new products in supermarkets. I’ve seen many ads for vegan products in January, not directly by Veganuary but by franchises like Burger King.
During Veganuary 2020, my wife and I made the decision to become vegan. We had been vegetarians before, and found out during Veganuary that a fully vegan lifestyle was easier than expected. Since then, one of our flatmates transitioned from omnivore to vegan. Another flatmate stayed omnivore but ate mostly vegan during the year that she lived with us. This is an extreme example, but it shows that the 31 emails can affect more than just one person, and for a duration longer than 6 months.
Overall, there seems to be a clear trend in Germany toward more vegan products. Oat milk shelves are larger than cow milk shelves in many retailers nowadays; there are many meat alternatives; vegan products are becoming popular also in other areas such as chocolate and baked goods. It’s difficult to isolate the effect that Veganuary has played in all this… but I’d be surprised if it was as small as Vasco estimates.
many downward adjustments (and lack of upward adjustments)
My cost-effectiveness estimate is supposed to be unbiased in the sense of not being too low or high in expectation.
During Veganuary 2020, my wife and I made the decision to become vegan. We had been vegetarians before, and found out during Veganuary that a fully vegan lifestyle was easier than expected. Since then, one of our flatmates transitioned from omnivore to vegan. Another flatmate stayed omnivore but ate mostly vegan during the year that she lived with us. This is an extreme example, but it shows that the 31 emails can affect more than just one person, and for a duration longer than 6 months.
To be clear, I think one single email or video can turn someone from omnivoure to vegan. However, I believe that is super far from the expected effect.
Overall, there seems to be a clear trend in Germany toward more vegan products.
The supply per capita of poultry meat in Germany has not had a clear downwards trend, although it does seem like it has already peaked.
Likewise for the supply per capita of fish and other seafood in Germany.
However, this is very weak evidence of the impact of Veganuary. There are many factors which affect meat consumption in Germany besides Veganuary, and that may well be the country which Veganuary targets with the most positive trends. In the UK, the consumption per capita of poultry meat has been increasing, although that on fish and other seafood has recently been decreasing.
Oat milk shelves are larger than cow milk shelves in many retailers nowadays
Nitpick. Dairy accounts for a very small fraction of animal suffering. I think decreases in its consumption only matter to the extent they predict decreases in the consumption of eggs, poultry birds, fish, or other seafood.
I understand that you are worried about chicken and fish consumption. I have no knowledge about why these charts are the way they are, or why people in the UK consume twice as much chicken as those in Germany. It’s also difficult to guess the impact of Veganuary in these trends. Insofar, I find the charts a bit distracting.
What I intended to say with my comment is that Veganuary has clearly visible impacts around me: when I go shopping, when I see ads, when I eat out. This seems to correlate with a general trend of seeing more vegan products, brands, and menu choices. Maybe the general trend that I identified is similarly distracting as your chicken and fish charts… yet it does seem to be something that Veganuary directly works on and influences.
I suspect that you brought up the chicken and fish charts because you worry about shifts in consumption from larger animals to higher numbers of small animals. This is a real possibility, but I would be wary of accusing Veganuary to cause such a shift, without good evidence. I grant that Veganuary tries to appeal to a broad range of people with various reasons for reducing meat consumption, including climate reasons which might cause a shift away from ruminants. But I recall there was a lot of Veganuary content around animal welfare. Personally, Veganuary shifted my views to care more about animals.
Animal welfare seems to be the main participant motivation. Here’s a figure from the 2023 survey report:
Taking a step back, it’s a little sad that this article feels so hostile towards Veganuary, and shows Veganuary in a bad light primarily because of discounts and back-of-the-envelope numbers that seem quite arbitrary. I see a lot less competition than you do between Veganuary and work on shrimp welfare or cage-free campaigns. On the contrary, people who have participated in Veganuary are likely more receptive for that type of work, and this is a benefit that we won’t find in CEAs ;-)
many downward adjustments (and lack of upward adjustments)
My cost-effectiveness estimate is supposed to be unbiased in the sense of not being too low or high in expectation.
During Veganuary 2020, my wife and I made the decision to become vegan. We had been vegetarians before, and found out during Veganuary that a fully vegan lifestyle was easier than expected. Since then, one of our flatmates transitioned from omnivore to vegan. Another flatmate stayed omnivore but ate mostly vegan during the year that she lived with us. This is an extreme example, but it shows that the 31 emails can affect more than just one person, and for a duration longer than 6 months.
To be clear, I think one single email or video can turn someone from omnivoure to vegan. However, I believe that is super far from the expected effect.
Overall, there seems to be a clear trend in Germany toward more vegan products.
The supply per capita of poultry meat in Germany has not had a clear downwards trend, although it does seem like it has already peaked.
Likewise for the supply per capita of fish and other seafood in Germany.
However, this is very weak evidence of the impact of Veganuary. There are many factors which affect meat consumption in Germany besides Veganuary, and that may well be the country which Veganuary targets with the most positive trends. In the UK, the consumption per capita of poultry meat has been increasing, although that on fish and other seafood has recently been decreasing.
Oat milk shelves are larger than cow milk shelves in many retailers nowadays
Nitpick. Dairy accounts for a very small fraction of animal suffering. I think decreases in its consumption only matter to the extent they predict decreases in the consumption of eggs, poultry birds, fish, or other seafood.
It’s great to try and analyze the cost-effectiveness of Veganuary. I’m thankful for this post and also for the responses by @Toni Vernelli and others.
While I appreciate the effort, I find it hard to agree with Vasco’s conclusions. There are many discounts in the analysis that feel pretty arbitrary to me. Toni has answered to this much better than I could. I’d just like to share a few personal impressions. These are of course biased, but might explain why I’m suspicious about the many downward adjustments (and lack of upward adjustments) in Vasco’s analysis:
Veganuary is quite prominent where I live. There are numerous new products in supermarkets. I’ve seen many ads for vegan products in January, not directly by Veganuary but by franchises like Burger King.
During Veganuary 2020, my wife and I made the decision to become vegan. We had been vegetarians before, and found out during Veganuary that a fully vegan lifestyle was easier than expected. Since then, one of our flatmates transitioned from omnivore to vegan. Another flatmate stayed omnivore but ate mostly vegan during the year that she lived with us. This is an extreme example, but it shows that the 31 emails can affect more than just one person, and for a duration longer than 6 months.
Overall, there seems to be a clear trend in Germany toward more vegan products. Oat milk shelves are larger than cow milk shelves in many retailers nowadays; there are many meat alternatives; vegan products are becoming popular also in other areas such as chocolate and baked goods. It’s difficult to isolate the effect that Veganuary has played in all this… but I’d be surprised if it was as small as Vasco estimates.
Thanks for the comment, Sjlver!
My cost-effectiveness estimate is supposed to be unbiased in the sense of not being too low or high in expectation.
To be clear, I think one single email or video can turn someone from omnivoure to vegan. However, I believe that is super far from the expected effect.
The supply per capita of poultry meat in Germany has not had a clear downwards trend, although it does seem like it has already peaked.
Likewise for the supply per capita of fish and other seafood in Germany.
However, this is very weak evidence of the impact of Veganuary. There are many factors which affect meat consumption in Germany besides Veganuary, and that may well be the country which Veganuary targets with the most positive trends. In the UK, the consumption per capita of poultry meat has been increasing, although that on fish and other seafood has recently been decreasing.
Nitpick. Dairy accounts for a very small fraction of animal suffering. I think decreases in its consumption only matter to the extent they predict decreases in the consumption of eggs, poultry birds, fish, or other seafood.
Thanks for the response!
I understand that you are worried about chicken and fish consumption. I have no knowledge about why these charts are the way they are, or why people in the UK consume twice as much chicken as those in Germany. It’s also difficult to guess the impact of Veganuary in these trends. Insofar, I find the charts a bit distracting.
What I intended to say with my comment is that Veganuary has clearly visible impacts around me: when I go shopping, when I see ads, when I eat out. This seems to correlate with a general trend of seeing more vegan products, brands, and menu choices. Maybe the general trend that I identified is similarly distracting as your chicken and fish charts… yet it does seem to be something that Veganuary directly works on and influences.
I suspect that you brought up the chicken and fish charts because you worry about shifts in consumption from larger animals to higher numbers of small animals. This is a real possibility, but I would be wary of accusing Veganuary to cause such a shift, without good evidence. I grant that Veganuary tries to appeal to a broad range of people with various reasons for reducing meat consumption, including climate reasons which might cause a shift away from ruminants. But I recall there was a lot of Veganuary content around animal welfare. Personally, Veganuary shifted my views to care more about animals.
Animal welfare seems to be the main participant motivation. Here’s a figure from the 2023 survey report:
Taking a step back, it’s a little sad that this article feels so hostile towards Veganuary, and shows Veganuary in a bad light primarily because of discounts and back-of-the-envelope numbers that seem quite arbitrary. I see a lot less competition than you do between Veganuary and work on shrimp welfare or cage-free campaigns. On the contrary, people who have participated in Veganuary are likely more receptive for that type of work, and this is a benefit that we won’t find in CEAs ;-)
Thanks for the comment, Sjlver!
My cost-effectiveness estimate is supposed to be unbiased in the sense of not being too low or high in expectation.
To be clear, I think one single email or video can turn someone from omnivoure to vegan. However, I believe that is super far from the expected effect.
The supply per capita of poultry meat in Germany has not had a clear downwards trend, although it does seem like it has already peaked.
Likewise for the supply per capita of fish and other seafood in Germany.
However, this is very weak evidence of the impact of Veganuary. There are many factors which affect meat consumption in Germany besides Veganuary, and that may well be the country which Veganuary targets with the most positive trends. In the UK, the consumption per capita of poultry meat has been increasing, although that on fish and other seafood has recently been decreasing.
Nitpick. Dairy accounts for a very small fraction of animal suffering. I think decreases in its consumption only matter to the extent they predict decreases in the consumption of eggs, poultry birds, fish, or other seafood.