“You can assert that you consider the 1000 people in (B) and (C) to be identical, for the purposes of applying your theory. That does avoid the non-identity problem in this case. But the fact is that they are not the same people. They have different hopes, dreams, personalities, memories, genders, etc.”
But you stated that they don’t exist yet (that they are “created”). Thus, we have no empirical knowledge of their hopes and dreams, so the most sensible prior seems to be that they are all identical. I apologise if I am coming across as obtuse, but I really do not see how non-identity causes issues here.
“The people in (B) would not want to move to (C), and vice versa, because that would mean they no longer exist.”
Sorry, but this is quite incorrect. The people in (C) would want to move to (B). Bear in mind that when we are evaluating this decision, we now set (C) as the status quo. So the 1000 people at welfare ε are considered to be wholly real. If you stipulate that in going to (B), these 1000 people are to be eradicated then replaced with (imaginary) people at high welfare, then naturally the people of (C) should say no.
However, if you instead take the more reasonable route of getting from (C) to (B) via raising the real welfare of the 1000 and slightly reducing the welfare of one person, then clearly (B) is better than (C).
I think I realise what the issue may be here. When I say “going from (C) to (B)” or similar, I do not mean that (C),(B) are existent populations and (C) is suddenly becoming (B). That way, we certainly do run into issues of non-identity. Rather, (C) is a status quo and (B) is a hypothetical which may be achieved by any route. Whether the resulting people of (B) in the hypothetical are real or imaginary depends on which route you take. Naturally, the best routes involve eradicating as few real people as possible. In this instance, we can get from (C) to (B) without getting rid of anyone. The route of disappearing 1000 people and replacing them with 1000 new people is one of the worse routes. And in the original post, in one of the examples, to get from one population to the other, it was necessary to get rid of real people, with only imaginary gain. Hence, there could notexist an acceptable route to the second population -- one better than remaining at the status quo.
I appreciate now that this may have been unclear. However, I did not fully explain this because the idea of one existent population “becoming” (indeed, how?) another existent population is surely impossible and therefore not worth consideration.
“There are also technical problems with how you’d actually apply this logic to more complicated situations where the number of future people differs. Suppose that 1000 extra people are created in (B), but 2000 extra people are created in (C), with varying levels of welfare. How do you apply your theory then? You now need 1000 of the 2000 people in (C) to be considered ‘effectively real’, to continue avoiding non-identity problem like conclusions, but which 1000? How do you pick? Different choices of the way you decide to pick will give you very different answers, and again your theory is becoming more impersonal, and losing more of its initial intuitive appeal.”
I would say exactly the same for this. If these people are being freshly created, then I don’t see the harm in treating them as identical. If a person decided not to have a child with their partner today, but rather tomorrow, then indeed, they will almost certainly produce a different child. But the hypothetical child of today is not exactly going to complain if they were never created. That is the reasoning guiding my thought, on the intuitive level.
And given that this calculus works solely by considering welfare, naturally, it is reductive, as is every utilitarian calculus which only considers welfare. Isn’t the very idea of reducing people to their welfare impersonal?
“0.1% chance of (A), 99.9% chance of (B)
0.1000001% chance of (A), 99.9% chance of (C).”
Well, it would seem to me this is perfect for an application of the concept of expectation. Taking the expected value, then in both cases ~999 people become effectively real and the same conclusion is reached.
If the odds in the second scenario were 50-50, then the expected value is that 500 people are effectively real (since 999 are expected in the first scenario, 500 in the second scenario and we have to pick one; we take the minimum). Then, the evaluation changes. Of course, this implies there is a critical point where if the chance of (C) in the second option is sufficiently low, then both options are equally good, from the perspective of (A).
The natural question then, which I also ask myself, is what if there were hundreds of scenarios, and in at least one scenario there were no people created. Then, supposedly no one is effectively real. But actually, I’m not sure this is a problem. More thinking will be required here to see whether I am right or wrong.
I do very much appreciate your criticism. Equally, it is quite striking to me that whenever you have pointed out an error, it has immediately seemed clear to me what the solution would be. Certainly, this discussion has been very productive in that way and rounded out this model a bit more. I expect I will write it all up, hopefully with some further improvements, in another post some time in the future.
“I would say exactly the same for this. If these people are being freshly created, then I don’t see the harm in treating them as identical.”
I think you missed my point. How can 1,000 people be identical to 2,000 people? Let me give a more concrete example. Suppose again we have 3 possible outcomes:
(A) (Status quo): 1 person exists at high welfare +X
(B): Original person has welfare reduced to X − 2ϵ, 1000 new people are created at welfare +X
(C): Original person has welfare reduced only to X - ϵ, 2000 new people are created, 1000 at welfare ϵ, and 1000 at welfare X + ϵ.
And you are forced to choose between (B) and (C).
How do you pick? I think you want to say 1000 of the potential new people are “effectively real”, but which 1000 are “effectively real” in scenario (C)? Is it the 1000 at welfare ϵ? Is it the 1000 at welfare X+ϵ? Is it some mix of the two?
If you take the first route, (B) is strongly preferred, but if you take the second, then (C) would be preferred. There’s ambiguity here which needs to be sorted out.
“Then, supposedly no one is effectively real. But actually, I’m not sure this is a problem. More thinking will be required here to see whether I am right or wrong.”
Thank you for finding and expressing my objection for me! This does seem like a fairly major problem to me.
“Sorry, but this is quite incorrect. The people in (C) would want to move to (B).”
No, they wouldn’t, because the people in (B) are different to the people in (C). You can assert that you treat them the same, but you can’t assert that they are the same. The (B) scenario with different people and the (B) scenario with the same people are both distinct, possible, outcomes, and your theory needs to handle them both. It can give the same answer to both, that’s fine, but part of the set up of my hypothetical scenario is that the people are different.
“Isn’t the very idea of reducing people to their welfare impersonal?”
Not necessarily. So called “person affecting” theories say that an act can only be wrong if it makes things worse for someone. That’s an example of a theory based on welfare which is not impersonal. Your intuitive justification for your theory seemed to have a similar flavour to this, but if we want to avoid the non-identity problem, we need to reject this appealing sounding principle. It is possible to make things worse even though there is no one who it is worse for. Your ‘effectively real’ modification does this, I just think it reduces the intuitive appeal of the argument you gave.
Ah, I understand now. Certainly then there is ambiguity that needs to be sorted out. I’d like to say again that this is not something the original theory was designed to handle. Everything I’ve been saying in these comments is off the cuff rather than premeditated—it’s not surprising that there are flaws in the fixes I’ve suggested. It’s certainly not surprising that the ad hoc fixes don’t solve every conceivable problem. And again, it would appear to me that there are plenty of plausible solutions. I guess really that I just need to spend some time evaluating which would be best and then tidy it up in a new post.
“No, they wouldn’t, because the people in (B) are different to the people in (C). You can assert that you treat them the same, but you can’t assert that they are the same. The (B) scenario with different people and the (B) scenario with the same people are both distinct, possible, outcomes, and your theory needs to handle them both. It can give the same answer to both, that’s fine, but part of the set up of my hypothetical scenario is that the people are different.”
Then yes, as I did say in the rather lengthy explanation I gave:
“The route of disappearing 1000 people and replacing them with 1000 new people is one of the worse routes.”
If you insist that we must get rid of 1000 people and replace them with 1000 different people, then sure, (B) is worse than (C). So now I will remind myself what your objection regarding this was in an earlier comment.
I’ll try explaining again briefly. With this theory, don’t think of the (B),(C) etc. as populations but rather as “distributions” the status quo population could take. Thus, as I said:
“(B) is a hypothetical which may be achieved by any route. Whether the resulting people of (B) in the hypothetical are real or imaginary depends on which route you take.”
When a population is not the status quo, it is simply representing a population distribution that you can get to. Whichever population is not the status quo is considered in an abstract, hypothetical sense.
Now you wish to specifically consider the case where (with status quo (C)), everyone in (B) is specified to be different to the people in (C). I stress that this is not the usual sense in which comparisons are made in the theory; it is much more specific. Again, if one insists on this, then since we have to disappear 1000 people to get to (B), (B) is worse.
Your issue with this is that: “the people in (B) would not want to move to (C), and vice versa, because that would mean they no longer exist. But your theory now gives a strong recommendation for one over the other anyway.”
Now I hope the explanation is fully clear. The distribution of (B) is preferable to people in (C) (i.e. with (C) as the status quo), but if you insist that the only routes to (C) involve getting rid of most of the population and replacing them with 1000 non-identical people, then this is not preferable. When (A) is the status quo, yes, we have a strong preference for (B) over (C) because we don’t have to lose 1000 people, and I don’t see the problem with considering people with equal welfare who (in the status quo of (A)) are imaginary or “effectively real” as identical. In line with a person-affecting outlook, I give more priority to real people than imaginary or effectively real people—I only respect the non-identity of real people. And just to add, viewing people as effectively real is not to say that they are really real (since they don’t exist yet, even if they are mathematically expected to); it’s only been a way to balance the books for forced decisions.
The outcome is still, as far as I can see, consistent with transitivity and my already-avowed rejection of an objective ordering.
“You can assert that you consider the 1000 people in (B) and (C) to be identical, for the purposes of applying your theory. That does avoid the non-identity problem in this case. But the fact is that they are not the same people. They have different hopes, dreams, personalities, memories, genders, etc.”
But you stated that they don’t exist yet (that they are “created”). Thus, we have no empirical knowledge of their hopes and dreams, so the most sensible prior seems to be that they are all identical. I apologise if I am coming across as obtuse, but I really do not see how non-identity causes issues here.
“The people in (B) would not want to move to (C), and vice versa, because that would mean they no longer exist.”
Sorry, but this is quite incorrect. The people in (C) would want to move to (B). Bear in mind that when we are evaluating this decision, we now set (C) as the status quo. So the 1000 people at welfare ε are considered to be wholly real. If you stipulate that in going to (B), these 1000 people are to be eradicated then replaced with (imaginary) people at high welfare, then naturally the people of (C) should say no.
However, if you instead take the more reasonable route of getting from (C) to (B) via raising the real welfare of the 1000 and slightly reducing the welfare of one person, then clearly (B) is better than (C).
I think I realise what the issue may be here. When I say “going from (C) to (B)” or similar, I do not mean that (C),(B) are existent populations and (C) is suddenly becoming (B). That way, we certainly do run into issues of non-identity. Rather, (C) is a status quo and (B) is a hypothetical which may be achieved by any route. Whether the resulting people of (B) in the hypothetical are real or imaginary depends on which route you take. Naturally, the best routes involve eradicating as few real people as possible. In this instance, we can get from (C) to (B) without getting rid of anyone. The route of disappearing 1000 people and replacing them with 1000 new people is one of the worse routes. And in the original post, in one of the examples, to get from one population to the other, it was necessary to get rid of real people, with only imaginary gain. Hence, there could not exist an acceptable route to the second population -- one better than remaining at the status quo.
I appreciate now that this may have been unclear. However, I did not fully explain this because the idea of one existent population “becoming” (indeed, how?) another existent population is surely impossible and therefore not worth consideration.
“There are also technical problems with how you’d actually apply this logic to more complicated situations where the number of future people differs. Suppose that 1000 extra people are created in (B), but 2000 extra people are created in (C), with varying levels of welfare. How do you apply your theory then? You now need 1000 of the 2000 people in (C) to be considered ‘effectively real’, to continue avoiding non-identity problem like conclusions, but which 1000? How do you pick? Different choices of the way you decide to pick will give you very different answers, and again your theory is becoming more impersonal, and losing more of its initial intuitive appeal.”
I would say exactly the same for this. If these people are being freshly created, then I don’t see the harm in treating them as identical. If a person decided not to have a child with their partner today, but rather tomorrow, then indeed, they will almost certainly produce a different child. But the hypothetical child of today is not exactly going to complain if they were never created. That is the reasoning guiding my thought, on the intuitive level.
And given that this calculus works solely by considering welfare, naturally, it is reductive, as is every utilitarian calculus which only considers welfare. Isn’t the very idea of reducing people to their welfare impersonal?
“0.1% chance of (A), 99.9% chance of (B)
0.1000001% chance of (A), 99.9% chance of (C).”
Well, it would seem to me this is perfect for an application of the concept of expectation. Taking the expected value, then in both cases ~999 people become effectively real and the same conclusion is reached.
If the odds in the second scenario were 50-50, then the expected value is that 500 people are effectively real (since 999 are expected in the first scenario, 500 in the second scenario and we have to pick one; we take the minimum). Then, the evaluation changes. Of course, this implies there is a critical point where if the chance of (C) in the second option is sufficiently low, then both options are equally good, from the perspective of (A).
The natural question then, which I also ask myself, is what if there were hundreds of scenarios, and in at least one scenario there were no people created. Then, supposedly no one is effectively real. But actually, I’m not sure this is a problem. More thinking will be required here to see whether I am right or wrong.
I do very much appreciate your criticism. Equally, it is quite striking to me that whenever you have pointed out an error, it has immediately seemed clear to me what the solution would be. Certainly, this discussion has been very productive in that way and rounded out this model a bit more. I expect I will write it all up, hopefully with some further improvements, in another post some time in the future.
“I would say exactly the same for this. If these people are being freshly created, then I don’t see the harm in treating them as identical.”
I think you missed my point. How can 1,000 people be identical to 2,000 people? Let me give a more concrete example. Suppose again we have 3 possible outcomes:
(A) (Status quo): 1 person exists at high welfare +X
(B): Original person has welfare reduced to X − 2ϵ, 1000 new people are created at welfare +X
(C): Original person has welfare reduced only to X - ϵ, 2000 new people are created, 1000 at welfare ϵ, and 1000 at welfare X + ϵ.
And you are forced to choose between (B) and (C).
How do you pick? I think you want to say 1000 of the potential new people are “effectively real”, but which 1000 are “effectively real” in scenario (C)? Is it the 1000 at welfare ϵ? Is it the 1000 at welfare X+ϵ? Is it some mix of the two?
If you take the first route, (B) is strongly preferred, but if you take the second, then (C) would be preferred. There’s ambiguity here which needs to be sorted out.
“Then, supposedly no one is effectively real. But actually, I’m not sure this is a problem. More thinking will be required here to see whether I am right or wrong.”
Thank you for finding and expressing my objection for me! This does seem like a fairly major problem to me.
“Sorry, but this is quite incorrect. The people in (C) would want to move to (B).”
No, they wouldn’t, because the people in (B) are different to the people in (C). You can assert that you treat them the same, but you can’t assert that they are the same. The (B) scenario with different people and the (B) scenario with the same people are both distinct, possible, outcomes, and your theory needs to handle them both. It can give the same answer to both, that’s fine, but part of the set up of my hypothetical scenario is that the people are different.
“Isn’t the very idea of reducing people to their welfare impersonal?”
Not necessarily. So called “person affecting” theories say that an act can only be wrong if it makes things worse for someone. That’s an example of a theory based on welfare which is not impersonal. Your intuitive justification for your theory seemed to have a similar flavour to this, but if we want to avoid the non-identity problem, we need to reject this appealing sounding principle. It is possible to make things worse even though there is no one who it is worse for. Your ‘effectively real’ modification does this, I just think it reduces the intuitive appeal of the argument you gave.
“Let me give a more concrete example.”
Ah, I understand now. Certainly then there is ambiguity that needs to be sorted out. I’d like to say again that this is not something the original theory was designed to handle. Everything I’ve been saying in these comments is off the cuff rather than premeditated—it’s not surprising that there are flaws in the fixes I’ve suggested. It’s certainly not surprising that the ad hoc fixes don’t solve every conceivable problem. And again, it would appear to me that there are plenty of plausible solutions. I guess really that I just need to spend some time evaluating which would be best and then tidy it up in a new post.
“No, they wouldn’t, because the people in (B) are different to the people in (C). You can assert that you treat them the same, but you can’t assert that they are the same. The (B) scenario with different people and the (B) scenario with the same people are both distinct, possible, outcomes, and your theory needs to handle them both. It can give the same answer to both, that’s fine, but part of the set up of my hypothetical scenario is that the people are different.”
Then yes, as I did say in the rather lengthy explanation I gave:
“The route of disappearing 1000 people and replacing them with 1000 new people is one of the worse routes.”
If you insist that we must get rid of 1000 people and replace them with 1000 different people, then sure, (B) is worse than (C). So now I will remind myself what your objection regarding this was in an earlier comment.
I’ll try explaining again briefly. With this theory, don’t think of the (B),(C) etc. as populations but rather as “distributions” the status quo population could take. Thus, as I said:
“(B) is a hypothetical which may be achieved by any route. Whether the resulting people of (B) in the hypothetical are real or imaginary depends on which route you take.”
When a population is not the status quo, it is simply representing a population distribution that you can get to. Whichever population is not the status quo is considered in an abstract, hypothetical sense.
Now you wish to specifically consider the case where (with status quo (C)), everyone in (B) is specified to be different to the people in (C). I stress that this is not the usual sense in which comparisons are made in the theory; it is much more specific. Again, if one insists on this, then since we have to disappear 1000 people to get to (B), (B) is worse.
Your issue with this is that: “the people in (B) would not want to move to (C), and vice versa, because that would mean they no longer exist. But your theory now gives a strong recommendation for one over the other anyway.”
Now I hope the explanation is fully clear. The distribution of (B) is preferable to people in (C) (i.e. with (C) as the status quo), but if you insist that the only routes to (C) involve getting rid of most of the population and replacing them with 1000 non-identical people, then this is not preferable. When (A) is the status quo, yes, we have a strong preference for (B) over (C) because we don’t have to lose 1000 people, and I don’t see the problem with considering people with equal welfare who (in the status quo of (A)) are imaginary or “effectively real” as identical. In line with a person-affecting outlook, I give more priority to real people than imaginary or effectively real people—I only respect the non-identity of real people. And just to add, viewing people as effectively real is not to say that they are really real (since they don’t exist yet, even if they are mathematically expected to); it’s only been a way to balance the books for forced decisions.
The outcome is still, as far as I can see, consistent with transitivity and my already-avowed rejection of an objective ordering.