I’d be very curious to see predictions (ideally backed up with bets) from people on different sides of this debate as to how widespread animal product consumption would be 1 year, 5 years or 10 years after plant-based meat reaching PTC-parity (suitably operationalized). Perhaps a survey of experts might facilitate this? Prediction markets would also be relevant.
This seems like it would cut through some of the not action-relevant meta-debate about whether people previously believed that PTC were merely necessary or sufficient.
(Jacob and I both work for Rethink Priorities, but this was written in a private capacity.)
I’d be very curious to see predictions (ideally backed up with bets) from people on different sides of this debate as to how widespread animal product consumption would be 1 year, 5 years or 10 years after plant-based meat reaching PTC-parity (suitably operationalized). Perhaps a survey of experts might facilitate this? Prediction markets would also be relevant.
This seems like it would cut through some of the not action-relevant meta-debate about whether people previously believed that PTC were merely necessary or sufficient.
(Jacob and I both work for Rethink Priorities, but this was written in a private capacity.)
Agree, forecasts would be great and I’d work on this is I end up spending more time on the future prospects of PBM!