For Improving Infrastructure around epistemics and forecasting, Ozzie or Nuno would likely be the best to answer this, so here I’m just trying to put myself in their mind. These ideas are a mixture of mine + a discussion with Ozzie.
I would say a clear opportunity would be to investigate looking into writing prediction functions, rather than just predictions. Say for instance “If SpaceX has a press release about an innovation to be released before 2025, then I estimate SpaceX to become a trillion dollar company 5 years earlier”. Having such a fidelity makes it possible to understand the best forecasting techniques better and aids in computer systems being able to answer these types of questions. As for as I know, this doesn’t exist.
As a side note, I think this type of forecasting platform would be awesome for policy evaluation. “If this policy is implemented in X way I predict that the policy will create a decrease in the unemployment rate by Y%”. The applications of the proper application of this idea are endless.
Another would be creating a platform that allows you to properly calibrate parameters for a Cost Effectiveness Calculation using forecasting, or evaluate outcomes of business decisions using forecasting.
I’m not a pro in this area, but that’s currently what I see.
For Improving Infrastructure around epistemics and forecasting, Ozzie or Nuno would likely be the best to answer this, so here I’m just trying to put myself in their mind. These ideas are a mixture of mine + a discussion with Ozzie.
I would say a clear opportunity would be to investigate looking into writing prediction functions, rather than just predictions. Say for instance “If SpaceX has a press release about an innovation to be released before 2025, then I estimate SpaceX to become a trillion dollar company 5 years earlier”. Having such a fidelity makes it possible to understand the best forecasting techniques better and aids in computer systems being able to answer these types of questions. As for as I know, this doesn’t exist.
As a side note, I think this type of forecasting platform would be awesome for policy evaluation. “If this policy is implemented in X way I predict that the policy will create a decrease in the unemployment rate by Y%”. The applications of the proper application of this idea are endless.
Another would be creating a platform that allows you to properly calibrate parameters for a Cost Effectiveness Calculation using forecasting, or evaluate outcomes of business decisions using forecasting.
I’m not a pro in this area, but that’s currently what I see.