I felt some cognitive dissonance at the small tree / lumberjack scene. Black Bird could have helped fight the lumberjack, then cut down the sprout. So it doesn’t map very well to actual catastrophic risk tradeoffs. I don’t know how to fix it though.
I did also initially think that it might be good to try to change the lumberjack instance, if possible, although it wasn’t for the same reason: I just feel that there is much more of a case to make that the lumberjack deserves a whole-of-community effort since there is a plausible chance the extra bird could make a difference. But after considering this about the non-urgency of the sprout vs the lumberjack, I especially feel it may not the best example. Still, I understood the message/idea, and it’s hard to know how non-EAs might react to the situation. Just something to keep in mind.
Thanks for the comments! The urgency argument makes sense. I’m not sure if I’ll end up changing things, but I’ll consider it, and thanks for pointing this out!
Yeah, and I don’t think the example of the sprout maps particularly well to catastrophic risks in itself.
If the sprout grows into a giant oak tree that is literally right next to their current tree, it seems like they could easily just move to the giant oak tree. It sounds like the ‘giant oak’ would eventually be bigger than their current tree, meaning more space per bird, allowing for more birds. Oh and some birds eat acorns!
In this case I think black bird could be making things worse for future birds.
Fair point, thank you! If I have some time, I might replace the sprout with some other kind of risk (maybe something flammable), but I haven’t though about it very carefully yet, and would definitely take suggestions.
I felt some cognitive dissonance at the small tree / lumberjack scene. Black Bird could have helped fight the lumberjack, then cut down the sprout. So it doesn’t map very well to actual catastrophic risk tradeoffs. I don’t know how to fix it though.
I did also initially think that it might be good to try to change the lumberjack instance, if possible, although it wasn’t for the same reason: I just feel that there is much more of a case to make that the lumberjack deserves a whole-of-community effort since there is a plausible chance the extra bird could make a difference. But after considering this about the non-urgency of the sprout vs the lumberjack, I especially feel it may not the best example. Still, I understood the message/idea, and it’s hard to know how non-EAs might react to the situation. Just something to keep in mind.
Thanks for the comments! The urgency argument makes sense. I’m not sure if I’ll end up changing things, but I’ll consider it, and thanks for pointing this out!
Saw this quote somewhere and it made me think of this comment again:
Ah, but are there a thousand hacking at the branches of evil for each one who thinks they are striking at the root?
Yeah, and I don’t think the example of the sprout maps particularly well to catastrophic risks in itself.
If the sprout grows into a giant oak tree that is literally right next to their current tree, it seems like they could easily just move to the giant oak tree. It sounds like the ‘giant oak’ would eventually be bigger than their current tree, meaning more space per bird, allowing for more birds. Oh and some birds eat acorns!
In this case I think black bird could be making things worse for future birds.
Fair point, thank you! If I have some time, I might replace the sprout with some other kind of risk (maybe something flammable), but I haven’t though about it very carefully yet, and would definitely take suggestions.