I think the bigger question as you’ve summarised at the end is “what effect would EA spending in these areas have”, particularly with GHD being very focused on measuring marginal impact and having some robustly data-supported alternatives. The reason why EA orgs have targeted lobbying more in other areas is the perception they’re neglected politically. Trade policy and migration aren’t and I don’t think EA is a bigger or more politically palatable tent than the people already promoting such ideas....
The virtues of free(r) trade, after all, is a 250 year old economic argument, and one of the least contested arguments amongst people that have actually studied it. Technocrats working in government learn it in their undergrad economics classes, think tanks with various degrees of partnership widely promote it. It’s about the only point of agreement between George Soros and the Koch brothers, the world’s biggest spending donors to economic policy lobbying. It’s difficult to see where EA funding changes anything and the context (Trump promoting protectionism on the [incorrect] assumption that if it hurts foreigners it’ll help Americans) couldn’t be a worse time to contemplate shifting in emphasis from trade benefiting everyone to the even less contested fact it benefits foreign exporters in poor countries. Maybe a lobbyist in the Brussels could get a slightly more sympathetic hearing from people running that free trade bloc, but the idea that the EU’s external tariff policies harm the developing world isn’t one they haven’t heard before, and they have entrenched interests in protected industries to look after and full blown negotiations with other countries when they;’re looking at lowering external trade barriers too.
Immigration is something facing even louder political pushback in more countries, and the basic fact that immigration tends to benefit immigrants’ families is even less contested[1], even by people who don’t like immigrants or the idea of immigration very much. But ultimately there are a lot of people in those groups (whilst ironically, the self-interests of politicians they elect on a “tough on migration” platform keep employment visas open). I guess that’s evidence you’re right that changes can be made at the margin without [or despite] large political debate, but they’re keeping guest worker programmes because they’re worried about the consequences of lack of guest workers, not because they feel compelled to offer routes out of poverty and the accompanying lobbying is likely to reflect that. The travel visa issue fits into that same “uphill struggle” bracket. I think there’s potential to make a huge difference to help individuals’ experience with immigration at the margin (not necessarily cost effectively, although making it self-financing is a possibility) but it seems like a losing cause in advocacy terms
Looking at remittance barriers might be more neglected, but I’m under the impression that the main factors pushing those remittance fees as high as 6-7% aren’t regulatory, they’re the “last mile” to typically unbanked people often in remote areas. That imposes service costs and tends towards natural monopoly (except where it can be avoided e.g. with M-PESA). I think some of those fees trickle into local remittance company offices and agents in villages anyway. That doesn’t mean there isn’t scope for bringing those fees down but I don’t know how easy something like the US-Mexican system is to implement in practice. I think some of the implementation barriers aren’t on the developed country side…
“And one of the least contested arguments amongst people that have actually studied it. “
Is it really that far from mainstream in economics to think that sometimes in poor countries, some trade barriers can help protect nascent industries and hence speed industrialization, and that this can be worth the cost to consumers in those countries of the trade barriers themselves? I kind of had a vague sense some famous books/people argue this?
There are some good arguments that in some cases, developing countries can benefit from protecting some of their own nascent industries.
There are basically no arguments that the developed world putting tariffs (or anti dumping duties) on imports helps the developing world, which is the harmful scenario Karthik discusses in his article as an example of Nunn’s argument that rich countries should stop doing things that harm poorer countries. Developed countries know full well these limit poorer countries’ ability to export to them… but that’s also why they impose them
Yeah, I know what I described is not really relevant to Karthik’s argument. But we don’t want a situation where people hear “free trade is good, economists agree” and then decide to lobby for developing countries to drop their trade barriers in cases where that is actually harmful.
I think the bigger question as you’ve summarised at the end is “what effect would EA spending in these areas have”, particularly with GHD being very focused on measuring marginal impact and having some robustly data-supported alternatives. The reason why EA orgs have targeted lobbying more in other areas is the perception they’re neglected politically. Trade policy and migration aren’t and I don’t think EA is a bigger or more politically palatable tent than the people already promoting such ideas....
The virtues of free(r) trade, after all, is a 250 year old economic argument, and one of the least contested arguments amongst people that have actually studied it. Technocrats working in government learn it in their undergrad economics classes, think tanks with various degrees of partnership widely promote it. It’s about the only point of agreement between George Soros and the Koch brothers, the world’s biggest spending donors to economic policy lobbying. It’s difficult to see where EA funding changes anything and the context (Trump promoting protectionism on the [incorrect] assumption that if it hurts foreigners it’ll help Americans) couldn’t be a worse time to contemplate shifting in emphasis from trade benefiting everyone to the even less contested fact it benefits foreign exporters in poor countries. Maybe a lobbyist in the Brussels could get a slightly more sympathetic hearing from people running that free trade bloc, but the idea that the EU’s external tariff policies harm the developing world isn’t one they haven’t heard before, and they have entrenched interests in protected industries to look after and full blown negotiations with other countries when they;’re looking at lowering external trade barriers too.
Immigration is something facing even louder political pushback in more countries, and the basic fact that immigration tends to benefit immigrants’ families is even less contested[1], even by people who don’t like immigrants or the idea of immigration very much. But ultimately there are a lot of people in those groups (whilst ironically, the self-interests of politicians they elect on a “tough on migration” platform keep employment visas open). I guess that’s evidence you’re right that changes can be made at the margin without [or despite] large political debate, but they’re keeping guest worker programmes because they’re worried about the consequences of lack of guest workers, not because they feel compelled to offer routes out of poverty and the accompanying lobbying is likely to reflect that. The travel visa issue fits into that same “uphill struggle” bracket. I think there’s potential to make a huge difference to help individuals’ experience with immigration at the margin (not necessarily cost effectively, although making it self-financing is a possibility) but it seems like a losing cause in advocacy terms
Looking at remittance barriers might be more neglected, but I’m under the impression that the main factors pushing those remittance fees as high as 6-7% aren’t regulatory, they’re the “last mile” to typically unbanked people often in remote areas. That imposes service costs and tends towards natural monopoly (except where it can be avoided e.g. with M-PESA). I think some of those fees trickle into local remittance company offices and agents in villages anyway. That doesn’t mean there isn’t scope for bringing those fees down but I don’t know how easy something like the US-Mexican system is to implement in practice. I think some of the implementation barriers aren’t on the developed country side…
with all due respect to “brain drain” arguments that are probably reasonable for aggregate impact in some sectors
“And one of the least contested arguments amongst people that have actually studied it. “
Is it really that far from mainstream in economics to think that sometimes in poor countries, some trade barriers can help protect nascent industries and hence speed industrialization, and that this can be worth the cost to consumers in those countries of the trade barriers themselves? I kind of had a vague sense some famous books/people argue this?
There are some good arguments that in some cases, developing countries can benefit from protecting some of their own nascent industries.
There are basically no arguments that the developed world putting tariffs (or anti dumping duties) on imports helps the developing world, which is the harmful scenario Karthik discusses in his article as an example of Nunn’s argument that rich countries should stop doing things that harm poorer countries. Developed countries know full well these limit poorer countries’ ability to export to them… but that’s also why they impose them
Yeah, I know what I described is not really relevant to Karthik’s argument. But we don’t want a situation where people hear “free trade is good, economists agree” and then decide to lobby for developing countries to drop their trade barriers in cases where that is actually harmful.
Fair. I agree with this
Plenty of entities who aren’t EAs doing that sort of lobbying already anyway