Based on my adjustments to CEARCH’s analysis of nuclear and volcanic winter, the expected annual mortality of nuclear winter as a fraction of the global population is 7.32*10^-6. I estimated the deaths from the climatic effects would be 1.16 times as large as the ones from direct effects. In this case, the expected annual mortality of nuclear war as a fraction of the global population would be 1.86 (= 1 + 1⁄1.16) times the expected annual mortality of nuclear winter as a fraction of the global population, i.e. 0.00136 %(= 1.86*7.32*10^-6). So the annual losses in future potential mentioned in the table above are 221 (= 0.0030/(1.36*10^-5)) and 73.5 (= 0.0010/(1.36*10^-5)) times my expected annual death toll, whereas I would have expected the annual loss in future potential to be much lower than the expected annual death toll.
Hi David,
Based on my adjustments to CEARCH’s analysis of nuclear and volcanic winter, the expected annual mortality of nuclear winter as a fraction of the global population is 7.32*10^-6. I estimated the deaths from the climatic effects would be 1.16 times as large as the ones from direct effects. In this case, the expected annual mortality of nuclear war as a fraction of the global population would be 1.86 (= 1 + 1⁄1.16) times the expected annual mortality of nuclear winter as a fraction of the global population, i.e. 0.00136 %(= 1.86*7.32*10^-6). So the annual losses in future potential mentioned in the table above are 221 (= 0.0030/(1.36*10^-5)) and 73.5 (= 0.0010/(1.36*10^-5)) times my expected annual death toll, whereas I would have expected the annual loss in future potential to be much lower than the expected annual death toll.