Your analysis on Congress/National level legislation is particularly telling as it seems to show that if you can survive the next political cycle/election, then the probability of the legislation remaining in place becomes almost static between 40-60% (apart from a drop at the 20-35 year mark).
This fits anecdotally with my experience and aligns with the reality that actually changing legislation can be incredibly tricky, especially on policies that are controversial within a political party. See the U.K.s 0.7% international aid legislation as an example.
Does your research look at any potential practical predictors (beyond neglectfulness) of a policy sticking for longer (such as complexity of language, cross-party support, integration in larger bill)? I’m out so haven’t read the full paper, but do just point me to that if it’s in there and I’ll look later!
I do look at predictors a bit—though note that it’s not about what makes it harder to repeal but rather about what makes a policy change/choice influential decades later.
The main takeaway is there aren’t many predictors—the effect is remarkably uniform. I can’t look at things around the structure of the law (e.g., integration in a larger bill), but I’d be surprised if something like complexity of language or cross-party support made a difference in what I’m looking at.
Interesting post, thank you!
Your analysis on Congress/National level legislation is particularly telling as it seems to show that if you can survive the next political cycle/election, then the probability of the legislation remaining in place becomes almost static between 40-60% (apart from a drop at the 20-35 year mark).
This fits anecdotally with my experience and aligns with the reality that actually changing legislation can be incredibly tricky, especially on policies that are controversial within a political party. See the U.K.s 0.7% international aid legislation as an example.
Does your research look at any potential practical predictors (beyond neglectfulness) of a policy sticking for longer (such as complexity of language, cross-party support, integration in larger bill)? I’m out so haven’t read the full paper, but do just point me to that if it’s in there and I’ll look later!
I do look at predictors a bit—though note that it’s not about what makes it harder to repeal but rather about what makes a policy change/choice influential decades later.
The main takeaway is there aren’t many predictors—the effect is remarkably uniform. I can’t look at things around the structure of the law (e.g., integration in a larger bill), but I’d be surprised if something like complexity of language or cross-party support made a difference in what I’m looking at.