Error
Unrecognized LW server error:
Field "fmCrosspost" of type "CrosspostOutput" must have a selection of subfields. Did you mean "fmCrosspost { ... }"?
Unrecognized LW server error:
Field "fmCrosspost" of type "CrosspostOutput" must have a selection of subfields. Did you mean "fmCrosspost { ... }"?
My sense reading this post is that it gestures at a framework for assessing the impact of political action that is widely endorsed in EA and that I like, but to make it actionable one needs the empirical detail to show competitive gains for particular examples. [ETA: I see on your own blog that you are going to follow up with a post trying to do that, which I will look forward to along with Ben Kuhn!] Also, congratulations on starting posting, it’s always great to see more thoughtful pieces like this.
I don’t think ‘collective action’ is really an issue stopping EAs from prioritizing protests. Charitable donations have the same problem, as a given $10 donation is very unlikely to make the difference between an extra malaria bednet distribution or not (which might costs hundreds of thousands of dollars). When I give $10/n the cost of the distribution I have a 1/n chance of having n times the impact, so the expected value of my donation is unaffected by the chunkiness/collective action. I basically need to know about the returns on large amounts of marginal funds and can then consider what the scaled-down share for my contribution would be.
For protests I don’t think anyone has a problem with asking what going from 100,000 to 400,000 protesters would do, and evaluating the individual decision to protest in terms of its scaled share. But to be convincing you have to actually show your work that the returns on protesting really are competitive with the opportunity cost of time (e.g. earning and donating some money, studying to advance your career and ability to get things done, doing malaria research, resting up after all of the above).
Some of the points that I think could be engaged with to make the OP case more concrete:
Police in the U.S. kill perhaps 1,000 people each year, and perhaps 300-400 African-Americans; in 2014 GiveWell moved $9.5 million to AMF, enough to save thousands of lives, plus twice that to deworming and cash transfer charities
EA donors numbered at most in the thousands (even counting all GiveWell donors), a far smaller movement
The human lives saved by GiveWell classic top charities were all African, and not only powerfully express support for the idea that black lives matter, but that they do across national borders
If the tens of millions of person-hours spent on the protests were spent at minimum wage jobs and the proceeds donated, then tens of thousands of African lives would have been saved; if one can earn higher wages or contribute in other scarce ways, the opportunity cost will be larger still
The protests were enabled by funding to organizing groups, e.g. George Soros spent over $33 million funding protests; we can compare the impacts of the total spending on such funding to the impacts of spending those same funds elsewhere
One could instead campaign, or fund (which will be much more productive in terms of campaigning produced for many people) political or policy work on issues like increasing immigration from poor countries or foreign aid that address the billions of people in absolute poverty, and the millions who die from preventable disease, war, and malnutrition abroad; time and funds spent on any given protest must be compared against the best alternatives we can find
Because of such considerations the value of different kinds of political involvement likely vary by many times, and the vast majority will be much less effective than the most
Groups like GiveWell and the Open Philanthropy Project have and are investigating political and policy work, and have even made grants, such as to the Center for Global Development and even some specifically criminal justice reform organizations; Giving What We Can has highlighted donation opportunities for funding political advocacy for more and more efficient foreign aid in the past
Effective altruism is itself a fast-growing social movement one can campaign for in various ways, which has been doubling in scope every year or so for some time now, and is already saving multiple times as many lives as could be saved by preventing every police shooting in America; campaigning for effective altruism has so far been highly effective
If the growth of effective altruism can continue for even a few more doublings and then level off while still accounting for only a tiny portion of rich country charitable giving it could save millions of lives
See this post by Benjamin Todd: Earning to give is systemic change
Also see Nobody is perfect, everything is commensurable, which I see also discussed the police shooting protests compared to malaria charity
Effective altruists are funding the investigation of political advocacy to find areas and interventions that are more effective than what they are doing
“It is far from rare that collective action changes the world. If we can contribute meaningfully to it – which if we cannot do as an individual activist, we almost certainly can as an organizer – we have no choice but to do so.”
I strongly object to this. Everyone could use up every waking hour of every day protesting, writing letters, going door-to-door, etc for a thousand different causes. They can’t all simultaneously exert an obligatory demand on our time, especially when they are worse than what we would otherwise doing.
You could make a case that while the opportunities available for political activism for cause X on a political day aren’t competitive with the best alternatives, on certain unusual occasions, e.g. on election days (moreso in primary elections, etc) the impact of an hour of time on political activity is many times greater than usual, and that might temporarily ‘push it over the top.’ But the political campaigns discussed in the OP occur over multi-year time scales, and plausibly benefit from the cash one could earn in an hour more than from an hour holding a sign. And in any case, one should still be able to pass basic checks on the empirical plausibility of an effect large enough to make this a competitive use of altruistic time.
All that said, people don’t have to be maximally effective or maximally altruistic all the time, and if they want to do something that is still good but far from maximally so, I don’t object. But to claim that at present margins a focus on “donating to effective charities...risks doing far less good for overlooking more traditional forms of protest” calls for at least a rough empirical sketch of how that could be true, ideally for some particular examples.
I have some old posts reviewing the rough probabilities of votes swinging elections, the cost of buying votes with donations. But you need a lot more to get to the point of thinking protests are a winning move, e.g.:
The value of the advocated metric of change
The likelihood of different sorts of change
The kind of policy change one might get and its efficacy to compare to alternative activities
The impact of things like books, films, academic research, think tanks, media articles, lobbying, and many other channels of advocacy that may be better (some of which are actual contributions to knowledge, e.g. RCTs showing success for an aid intervention are powerful lobbying tools in getting public funds to those interventions, economic analysis of immigration is an important factor in debates there, etc)
Thanks for your helpful reply. Will take note of this in my response.
I’m curious about the implicit framework where some things are obligatory and some things are choices.
I suspect the social intuition of when we consider someone obligated has at least a little to do with the level of personal sacrifice required.
As in, you are almost always obligated to be good if it the personal cost to you is nothing,and you are almost never obligated to be good if it costs you a great deal. (Which is why you are obligated to save a drowning child but you are a hero if you save the same child from a dangerous burning building.)
If Singer says we’re “obligated” to be effective altruists, he’s trying to transfer the social norm we have for being obligated to save drowning children because the personal cost is very slight, over to being obligated to, say, buy mosquito nets, because the personal cost is very slight.
(personal morality, divorced from social ideas of what is an obligation, of course, might widely differ)
That’s also combined with whether the person is culpable. (You’re obligated to clean up your mess, but you’re extra good if you clean up someone elses.)
Isn’t that a common distinction among philosophers? I recall that there’s a technical name for it.
Yeah, and among common intuitions I think. But I thought EAs were mostly consequentialists, so the intended role of obligations is not obvious to me.
I think the survey of EAs from the start of the year picked up a few hundred non-consequentialists. It had a high %age of consequentialists, but emphasized this figure shouldn’t be taken as covering all EAs out there.
Philosophers call good acts that aren’t obligations ‘supererogatory’.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradox_of_voting
^ a related problem, and that page just informed me that there is a field of Public Choice Theory which might have more on this sort of thing.
(Of course, in all such problems, you still have to determine the effect of the collective action itself, in addition to the effect of your contribution on the strength of the collective action. That goes without saying, of course, for all actions.)
One hour of time for someone high-up in the organising process could plausibly cause 100 extra people to attend the rally.
If we’re talking about the impact of volunteering time to help rallies, it would be more interesting to look at the main organisers instead of the marginal person who comes, since their time is having an impact several magnitudes higher.
The problem with demonstrations is that half of the time, people demonstrate against each other’s causes. Or just for causes with unclear sign or scope of impact.
The whole thing has huge overhead; it blocks the streets and disrupts everyone, and additional police have to be paid to secure the whole thing.
On the other hand, there is no doubt some demonstrations have been of great historical significance.
So make sure this is worth your time, compared to just sending 20 bucks to some random effective charity,
A big part of effective altruism is the belief that we should use much of our time to help others. If we had to choose between ‘spending time non-altruistically’ and ‘going to a protest for an important cause’, then yes, we would have some kind of obligation to go to the protest.
However, we don’t have to choose between those two options. There are many different ‘altruistic’ actions we can take such as helping a friend move house, earning-to-give, volunteering for a specific organisation or signing a petition on social media. Some of those actions would do a huge amount of good, while others would do almost nothing. We have an obligation to take the action which will do the ‘most’ good.
People within the EA community already try to spend their time altruistically. And it’s unclear that going to a protest would do more good than the action they would otherwise have taken. But if you can make your case to non-effective altruists, I’d say “Go for it!”
I agree with the point about having to consider better alternatives, but I would like to push back against the idea of total self-sacrificing commitment (not necessarily attributing it to you, but it might be read out of this conversation):
“A big part of effective altruism is the belief that we should use much of our time to help others. If we had to choose between ‘spending time non-altruistically’ and ‘going to a protest for an important cause’, then yes, we would have some kind of obligation to go to the protest.”
The totalizing view that participation in effective altruism means sacrificing all one’s projects whenever doing so creates more impartial value for others, is not in line with the definitions normally given, or the behavior of effective altruists.
Peter Singer gives 25% of his substantial income, and does not push the ‘give until one becomes as poor as those being helped, or until this reduces one’s productivity/motivation enough to reduce net donations’ line these days. Giving What We Can has a 10% centerpiece standard pledge, with lower pledges available (and some higher). The wealthiest EAs contribute a large fraction of EA donations while retaining generous personal consumption budgets even when giving a large majority of their wealth.
Almost all the good done by EA comes from making modest sacrifices, and a claim that EA=giving up time and money without limit would be both hypocritical and very plausibly self-defeating.
Also see: infinite debts.
Do EA’s generally think we have an obligation to take the action which will do the ‘most’ good?
depends which one you ask!
I personally think we have an obligation. And I would speculate that most EAs would at least believe that we have an ‘obligation to help others effectively’ in a weaker sense. But I should have been more careful in making that statement.