FWIW I’d still favour two posts (or if you were only going to one, focusing on longtermism). I took a quick look at the original list, and I think they divide up pretty well, so you wouldn’t end up with many reasons that should appear on both lists. I also think it would be fine to have some arguments appear on both lists.
In general, I think conflating the case for existential risk with the case for longtermism has caused a lot of confusion, and it’s really worth pushing against.
For instance, many arguments that undermine existential risk actually imply we should focus on (i) investing & capacity building (ii) global priorities research or (iii) other ways to improve the future, but instead get understood as arguments for working on global health.
Thanks Ben. There is actually at least one argument in the draft for each alternative you named. To be honest, I don’t think you can get a good sense of my 26,000 word draft from my 570 word comment from two years ago. I’ll send you my draft when I’m done, but until then, I don’t think it’s productive for us to go back and forth like this.
FWIW I’d still favour two posts (or if you were only going to one, focusing on longtermism). I took a quick look at the original list, and I think they divide up pretty well, so you wouldn’t end up with many reasons that should appear on both lists. I also think it would be fine to have some arguments appear on both lists.
In general, I think conflating the case for existential risk with the case for longtermism has caused a lot of confusion, and it’s really worth pushing against.
For instance, many arguments that undermine existential risk actually imply we should focus on (i) investing & capacity building (ii) global priorities research or (iii) other ways to improve the future, but instead get understood as arguments for working on global health.
Thanks Ben. There is actually at least one argument in the draft for each alternative you named. To be honest, I don’t think you can get a good sense of my 26,000 word draft from my 570 word comment from two years ago. I’ll send you my draft when I’m done, but until then, I don’t think it’s productive for us to go back and forth like this.