These are very sound, reasonable points. Agreed that the allegation that he repeatedly raised Alameda’s line of credit, and its ability to carry negative balances, seems troubling and inconsistent with his claims that, “I had no idea.” But complaints always sound bad. Hard to know what to make of the story until we’ve heard the other side.
I also would feel more convinced if they stated in the complaint something like the following, “When other employees raised concerns that turning off risk controls for Alameda would be unfair and fraudulent, Bankman-Fried responded, ‘I don’t care if it’s dishonest. We need to make money.’ ”
Complaints don’t have to go into that level of detail, but given the public nature of this prosecution, if I were the USAtty, I would have chosen to do so. The other side will get this evidence eventually, anyways, because it’s legally required discovery. And it will build more public confidence in the prosecution—that it is a legitimate prosecution rather than mob mentality—if they show that they have clear evidence of fraud.
If they have evidence of this sort and are hiding the ball, the best explanation to me is that they are trying to soft pedal their witnesses, to prevent them from backing out of their commitment to provide testimony.
I also would feel more convinced if they stated in the complaint something like the following, “When other employees raised concerns that turning off risk controls for Alameda would be unfair and fraudulent, Bankman-Fried responded, ‘I don’t care if it’s dishonest. We need to make money.’ ”
Sure, I agree that things would be even more apparent if SBF were on the record explicitly condoning fraud. But that’s easily avoidable, so any bad actor who isn’t stupid will find workarounds to communicating in such a self-incriminating way. (From what we’re hearing, there may have been self-deleting chats and emoji reactions instead of diligent record-keeping.) It’s common for liars to leave themselves plausible deniability wherever possible. That’s why a shred of plausible deniability should be worth near to nothing when contrasted with a large amount of circumstantial incriminating evidence. I take moral offense at your slowness to update here: it seems that bad actors have it easy when people on the sidelines predominantly reason the way you do. We should invest at least as much effort steelmanning the case that someone is guilty than that they’re innocent. If they’re guilty, their potential/alleged victims usually vastly outnumber them.
I get the point that ideal justice includes steelmanning the case that someone is innocent or was acting with negligence rather than fraud/malice. So if you’re playing the role of a defender in the legal system, that’s okay! But it should be flagged as such. If we’re approaching this from the perspective of “what’s likely to be the case?” then my worry is that you’re systemically underestimating the probability of fraud/malice if you wait for explicit confessions/smoking guns with the person’s fingerprints. It’s somewhat rare for bad actors to leave these things laying around. Also, and perhaps more importantly, it’s very rare that innocent people maneuver themselves in situations where they face really severe criminal charges and potentially a lifetime in jail. This holds even more so if the person in question seems really smart and competent whenever it isn’t in their advantage to play dumb.
Prosecutors are not supposed to litigate their criminal cases in the media (although they often do). Although you could put explosive stuff in the complaint without violating Model Rules 3.6 and 3.8, it does run the risk of tainting the jury pool. The accountability will come when SBF pleads or when SDNY has to put up or shut up at trial. I don’t think there is a widespread (or even semi-common) belief that SDNY is overplaying its hand. So I would be more worried about handing SBF a potential appellate issue than about public confidence right now.
These are very sound, reasonable points. Agreed that the allegation that he repeatedly raised Alameda’s line of credit, and its ability to carry negative balances, seems troubling and inconsistent with his claims that, “I had no idea.” But complaints always sound bad. Hard to know what to make of the story until we’ve heard the other side.
I also would feel more convinced if they stated in the complaint something like the following, “When other employees raised concerns that turning off risk controls for Alameda would be unfair and fraudulent, Bankman-Fried responded, ‘I don’t care if it’s dishonest. We need to make money.’ ”
Complaints don’t have to go into that level of detail, but given the public nature of this prosecution, if I were the USAtty, I would have chosen to do so. The other side will get this evidence eventually, anyways, because it’s legally required discovery. And it will build more public confidence in the prosecution—that it is a legitimate prosecution rather than mob mentality—if they show that they have clear evidence of fraud.
If they have evidence of this sort and are hiding the ball, the best explanation to me is that they are trying to soft pedal their witnesses, to prevent them from backing out of their commitment to provide testimony.
Sure, I agree that things would be even more apparent if SBF were on the record explicitly condoning fraud. But that’s easily avoidable, so any bad actor who isn’t stupid will find workarounds to communicating in such a self-incriminating way. (From what we’re hearing, there may have been self-deleting chats and emoji reactions instead of diligent record-keeping.) It’s common for liars to leave themselves plausible deniability wherever possible. That’s why a shred of plausible deniability should be worth near to nothing when contrasted with a large amount of circumstantial incriminating evidence. I take moral offense at your slowness to update here: it seems that bad actors have it easy when people on the sidelines predominantly reason the way you do. We should invest at least as much effort steelmanning the case that someone is guilty than that they’re innocent. If they’re guilty, their potential/alleged victims usually vastly outnumber them.
I get the point that ideal justice includes steelmanning the case that someone is innocent or was acting with negligence rather than fraud/malice. So if you’re playing the role of a defender in the legal system, that’s okay! But it should be flagged as such. If we’re approaching this from the perspective of “what’s likely to be the case?” then my worry is that you’re systemically underestimating the probability of fraud/malice if you wait for explicit confessions/smoking guns with the person’s fingerprints. It’s somewhat rare for bad actors to leave these things laying around. Also, and perhaps more importantly, it’s very rare that innocent people maneuver themselves in situations where they face really severe criminal charges and potentially a lifetime in jail. This holds even more so if the person in question seems really smart and competent whenever it isn’t in their advantage to play dumb.
Prosecutors are not supposed to litigate their criminal cases in the media (although they often do). Although you could put explosive stuff in the complaint without violating Model Rules 3.6 and 3.8, it does run the risk of tainting the jury pool. The accountability will come when SBF pleads or when SDNY has to put up or shut up at trial. I don’t think there is a widespread (or even semi-common) belief that SDNY is overplaying its hand. So I would be more worried about handing SBF a potential appellate issue than about public confidence right now.