The cumulative chance of nuclear war in the next 4-8 years is much lower than the cumulative chance of nuclear war between 8 and ~50 years from now, and changes to various economic, political and social structures can affect the probabilities of full nuclear war as well as other x-risks in the long run.
The cumulative chance of nuclear war in the next 4-8 years is much lower than the cumulative chance of nuclear war between 8 and ~50 years from now, and changes to various economic, political and social structures can affect the probabilities of full nuclear war as well as other x-risks in the long run.