The concerns about US/Russian relations appear particularly important, and it’s something that most people seem to overlook. It’s plausible to me that a Trump administration has lower risk of causing an extinction-level event than a Clinton administration, and I’ve never heard a compelling argument for why other concerns matter more.
The cumulative chance of nuclear war in the next 4-8 years is much lower than the cumulative chance of nuclear war between 8 and ~50 years from now, and changes to various economic, political and social structures can affect the probabilities of full nuclear war as well as other x-risks in the long run.
FWIW, I saw plenty of people on Facebook arguing that Clinton was more likely to cause a nuclear war, even from within my liberal bubble. Significantly more than I saw arguing the reverse in fact.
On the object level point, I basically agree with kbog. Even if I think Trump is unlikely to cause a nuclear war on account of being chummy with Russia, it’s easy to imagine him damaging the structures that restrict the president and then the next populist won’t be so chummy with Russia (AFAIK it’s hardly a popular position within the US to be nice to Russia, though low confidence in that).
The concerns about US/Russian relations appear particularly important, and it’s something that most people seem to overlook. It’s plausible to me that a Trump administration has lower risk of causing an extinction-level event than a Clinton administration, and I’ve never heard a compelling argument for why other concerns matter more.
The cumulative chance of nuclear war in the next 4-8 years is much lower than the cumulative chance of nuclear war between 8 and ~50 years from now, and changes to various economic, political and social structures can affect the probabilities of full nuclear war as well as other x-risks in the long run.
FWIW, I saw plenty of people on Facebook arguing that Clinton was more likely to cause a nuclear war, even from within my liberal bubble. Significantly more than I saw arguing the reverse in fact.
On the object level point, I basically agree with kbog. Even if I think Trump is unlikely to cause a nuclear war on account of being chummy with Russia, it’s easy to imagine him damaging the structures that restrict the president and then the next populist won’t be so chummy with Russia (AFAIK it’s hardly a popular position within the US to be nice to Russia, though low confidence in that).