Cheers. For what it’s worth, I’m not sure how much one should update one’s priors based on this list, because it’s not clear how many people in finance there are in total (though maybe one could quickly do a back of the envelope calculation here). So I think that this kind of thing is more useful when thinking about what happens once you know there is fraud.
Yeah I had the same thought too. Though when I said priors I personally did not mean updating quantifiably (i.e. 0.05 --> 0.1); more in the folk sense of priors, or base rates.
Also the examples I gave are more about certain features of a business / company that I should be more sceptical about.
Right, what I meant is that you probably shouldn’t update all that much about the frequency of fraud within finance, the same way that you shouldn’t update on how often redheads are evil are after reading a list of evil redheads.
Cheers. For what it’s worth, I’m not sure how much one should update one’s priors based on this list, because it’s not clear how many people in finance there are in total (though maybe one could quickly do a back of the envelope calculation here). So I think that this kind of thing is more useful when thinking about what happens once you know there is fraud.
Yeah I had the same thought too. Though when I said priors I personally did not mean updating quantifiably (i.e. 0.05 --> 0.1); more in the folk sense of priors, or base rates.
Also the examples I gave are more about certain features of a business / company that I should be more sceptical about.
Right, what I meant is that you probably shouldn’t update all that much about the frequency of fraud within finance, the same way that you shouldn’t update on how often redheads are evil are after reading a list of evil redheads.
Oh darling, I understood your point which is why I said...