An interesting discussion, although one I doubt will have to be reasonably considered for some time. Two things that come to mind for me though:
There’s an underlying assumption that the cost/life won’t chance either through economies of scale, nor improved research causing to price reduction. If research on disease B could cut the cost of the invention per person, that changes the calculation. While you may assume all things equal in the exercise, in real life there’s always the possibility of innovation, economies of scale, and working against both of those, the law of diminishing returns.
There’s an underlying assumption that people experience hope in rational quantities based on an accurate understanding of their probabilities of treatment. Behavioral psychologists and economists have demonstrated that that’s certainly not the case. If it were true, no one would buy lottery tickets (see prospect theory with low probabilities of high pay offs). So you’d require a nonlinear hope/probability curve.
An interesting discussion, although one I doubt will have to be reasonably considered for some time. Two things that come to mind for me though:
There’s an underlying assumption that the cost/life won’t chance either through economies of scale, nor improved research causing to price reduction. If research on disease B could cut the cost of the invention per person, that changes the calculation. While you may assume all things equal in the exercise, in real life there’s always the possibility of innovation, economies of scale, and working against both of those, the law of diminishing returns.
There’s an underlying assumption that people experience hope in rational quantities based on an accurate understanding of their probabilities of treatment. Behavioral psychologists and economists have demonstrated that that’s certainly not the case. If it were true, no one would buy lottery tickets (see prospect theory with low probabilities of high pay offs). So you’d require a nonlinear hope/probability curve.