I want to flag that I see quite a lot of inappropriate binarization happening, and I generally see quite a lot of dismissals of valid third options.
Either they take the extinction risks seriously, or they don’t.
There are other important possibilities, like a potential belief in AI progress helping or solving the existential risk, thinking that the intervention of increasing AI progress is actually the best strategy, etc. More generally, once we make weaker or no assumptions about AI risk, we no longer obtain the binary you’ve suggested.
So this doesn’t really work, because it basically requires us to assume the conclusion, especially for near-term people.
My conclusion is that they say they take the extinction risks seriously, but they’re lying, or they’re profoundly self-deceived. In any case, their revealed preferences are that they prefer a little extra money, power, and status for themselves over a lot of extra safety for everybody else—and for themselves.
Sharmake—in most contexts, your point would be valid, and inappropriate binarization would be a bad thing.
But when it comes to AI X-risk, I don’t see any functional difference between dismissing AI X risks, and thinking that AI progress will help solve (other?) X risks, or thinking that increasing AI progress with somehow reduce AI X risks. Those ‘third options’ just seem like they fall into the overall category of ‘not taking AI X risk seriously, at all’.
For example, if people think AI progress will somehow reduce AI X risk, that boils down to thinking that ‘the closer we get to the precipice, the better we’ll be able to avoid the precipice’.
If people think AI progress will somehow reduce other X risks, I’d want a realistic analysis of what those other alleged X risks really are, and how exactly AI progress would help. In practice, in almost every blog, post, and comment I’ve seen, this boils down to the vague claim that ‘AI could help us solve climate change’. But very few serious climate scientists think that climate change is a literal X risk that could kill every living human.
I just want to remind that simply having some of the company budget allocated to pay people to spend their time thinking about and studying the potential impacts of the technology the company is developing, is in itself a good thing.
About the possibility that they would come to the conclusion the most rational thing would be to stop the development—I think the concern here is moot anyway because of the many player dilemma in the AI space (if one stops the others don’t have to), which is (I think) impossible to solve from inside any single company anyway.
Having some of the OpenAI company budget allocated to ‘AI safety’ could just be safety-washing—essentially, part of the OpenAI PR/marketing budget, rather than an actual safety effort.
If the safety people don’t actually have any power to slow or stop the rush towards AGI, I don’t see their utility.
As for the arms race dilemma, imagine if OpenAI announced one day ‘Oh no, we’ve made a horrible mistake; AGI would be way too risky; we are stopped all AGI-related research to protect humanity; he’s how to audit us to make sure we follow through on this promise’. I think the other major players in the AI space would be under considerable pressure from investors, employees, media, politicians, and the public to also stop their AGI research.
It’s just not that hard to coordinate on the ‘no-AGI-research’ focal point if enough serious people decide to do so, and there’s enough public support.
I want to flag that I see quite a lot of inappropriate binarization happening, and I generally see quite a lot of dismissals of valid third options.
There are other important possibilities, like a potential belief in AI progress helping or solving the existential risk, thinking that the intervention of increasing AI progress is actually the best strategy, etc. More generally, once we make weaker or no assumptions about AI risk, we no longer obtain the binary you’ve suggested.
So this doesn’t really work, because it basically requires us to assume the conclusion, especially for near-term people.
Sharmake—in most contexts, your point would be valid, and inappropriate binarization would be a bad thing.
But when it comes to AI X-risk, I don’t see any functional difference between dismissing AI X risks, and thinking that AI progress will help solve (other?) X risks, or thinking that increasing AI progress with somehow reduce AI X risks. Those ‘third options’ just seem like they fall into the overall category of ‘not taking AI X risk seriously, at all’.
For example, if people think AI progress will somehow reduce AI X risk, that boils down to thinking that ‘the closer we get to the precipice, the better we’ll be able to avoid the precipice’.
If people think AI progress will somehow reduce other X risks, I’d want a realistic analysis of what those other alleged X risks really are, and how exactly AI progress would help. In practice, in almost every blog, post, and comment I’ve seen, this boils down to the vague claim that ‘AI could help us solve climate change’. But very few serious climate scientists think that climate change is a literal X risk that could kill every living human.
I just want to remind that simply having some of the company budget allocated to pay people to spend their time thinking about and studying the potential impacts of the technology the company is developing, is in itself a good thing.
About the possibility that they would come to the conclusion the most rational thing would be to stop the development—I think the concern here is moot anyway because of the many player dilemma in the AI space (if one stops the others don’t have to), which is (I think) impossible to solve from inside any single company anyway.
Having some of the OpenAI company budget allocated to ‘AI safety’ could just be safety-washing—essentially, part of the OpenAI PR/marketing budget, rather than an actual safety effort.
If the safety people don’t actually have any power to slow or stop the rush towards AGI, I don’t see their utility.
As for the arms race dilemma, imagine if OpenAI announced one day ‘Oh no, we’ve made a horrible mistake; AGI would be way too risky; we are stopped all AGI-related research to protect humanity; he’s how to audit us to make sure we follow through on this promise’. I think the other major players in the AI space would be under considerable pressure from investors, employees, media, politicians, and the public to also stop their AGI research.
It’s just not that hard to coordinate on the ‘no-AGI-research’ focal point if enough serious people decide to do so, and there’s enough public support.