See the reply to the first comment on that post. Paul’s “most humans die from AI takeover” is 11%. There are other bad scenarios he considers, like losing control of the future, or most humans die for other reasons, but my understanding is that the 11% most closely corresponds to doom from AI.
Doesn’t Paul Christiano also have a p(doom) of around 50%? (To me, this suggests “maybe”, rather than “likely”).
See the reply to the first comment on that post. Paul’s “most humans die from AI takeover” is 11%. There are other bad scenarios he considers, like losing control of the future, or most humans die for other reasons, but my understanding is that the 11% most closely corresponds to doom from AI.
Fair. But the other scenarios making up the ~50% are still terrible enough for us to Pause.