We have standard GCR discounts when estimating long term impact, but for AI—we’re generally more sceptical, both on paperclipping and on extremely rosy projections of economic growth. In any case, while there might be a theoretical case for discounting income-based interventions (if you really believe GDP growth is going jump to 10% per annum, we’re obviously moving up the DMR curve more rapidly), there’s much less direct impact on health (in fact, if you think income is going to drastically increase, that makes consumption greater, and the DALY burden of diseases of affluence much worse, and hence preventing them more cost-effective).
Hi Vasco,
We have standard GCR discounts when estimating long term impact, but for AI—we’re generally more sceptical, both on paperclipping and on extremely rosy projections of economic growth. In any case, while there might be a theoretical case for discounting income-based interventions (if you really believe GDP growth is going jump to 10% per annum, we’re obviously moving up the DMR curve more rapidly), there’s much less direct impact on health (in fact, if you think income is going to drastically increase, that makes consumption greater, and the DALY burden of diseases of affluence much worse, and hence preventing them more cost-effective).
Thanks, Joel. That makes sense.