I would agree existential risk reduction is a type of trajectory change (as I mentioned in this footnote). That being said, depending on the shape of future value, one may want to focus on some particular types of trajectory changes (e.g. x-risk reduction). To clarify, I have added “multiple types of ” before “trajectory changes”.
It could be better to be more specific—e.g. to talk about value changes, human extinction, civilisational collapse, etc. Your framing may make it appear as if a binary distribution entails that, e.g. value change interventions have a low impact, and I don’t think that’s the case.
In my view, we should not assume that value change interventions are not an effective way of reducing existential risk, so they may still be worth pursuing if future value is binary.
I would agree existential risk reduction is a type of trajectory change (as I mentioned in this footnote). That being said, depending on the shape of future value, one may want to focus on some particular types of trajectory changes (e.g. x-risk reduction). To clarify, I have added “multiple types of ” before “trajectory changes”.
I don’t think that change makes much difference.
It could be better to be more specific—e.g. to talk about value changes, human extinction, civilisational collapse, etc. Your framing may make it appear as if a binary distribution entails that, e.g. value change interventions have a low impact, and I don’t think that’s the case.
In my view, we should not assume that value change interventions are not an effective way of reducing existential risk, so they may still be worth pursuing if future value is binary.