It could be better to be more specific—e.g. to talk about value changes, human extinction, civilisational collapse, etc. Your framing may make it appear as if a binary distribution entails that, e.g. value change interventions have a low impact, and I don’t think that’s the case.
In my view, we should not assume that value change interventions are not an effective way of reducing existential risk, so they may still be worth pursuing if future value is binary.
I don’t think that change makes much difference.
It could be better to be more specific—e.g. to talk about value changes, human extinction, civilisational collapse, etc. Your framing may make it appear as if a binary distribution entails that, e.g. value change interventions have a low impact, and I don’t think that’s the case.
In my view, we should not assume that value change interventions are not an effective way of reducing existential risk, so they may still be worth pursuing if future value is binary.