I think this post is a bit too humble. The social movements that worked had reasons they worked. The structure of the problem, the allies they were likely to find, and the enemies they were likely to have resulted in the particular strategies they chose working. Similarly for the social movements which failed. These are reasons you can & should learn from, and your ability to look at those reasons is the largest order effect here.
Most movements don’t, they do what you describe, choose their favorite movement, and cargo-cult their way to failure.
The most clear-cut version of this are climate activists doing a civil disobedience.
Why did civil disobedience work during civil rights? Well there were laws which used disproportionate levels of ugly violence to prevent people from doing a variety of very peaceful acts such as sitting on certain seats. By breaking these laws, filming it, and peacefully accepting the consequences you can show both how horrible the law is, how nice your movement is in comparison to the status quo, and how devoted you are to your opinion on the subject by being a willing martyr.
Throwing soup at van gogh paintings have none of these attributes, so it is counter-productive.
The social movements that worked had reasons they worked. The structure of the problem, the allies they were likely to find, and the enemies they were likely to have resulted in the particular strategies they chose working. Similarly for the social movements which failed. These are reasons you can & should learn from, and your ability to look at those reasons is the largest order effect here.
I take the point about being too humble but I’m not sure I fully agree with this bit above! Specifically, I think there are some random factors around luck, personal connections and timing that play a big role. For example, the founders of Extinction Rebellion tried some very similar campaigns a year before Extinction Rebellion launched, with no huge success. Then, a year later, Extinction Rebellion exploded globally. Basically, I also think you can do everything “right” but still not succeed. That said, doing certain things do definitely increases your chances of success.
Throwing soup at van gogh paintings have none of these attributes, so it is counter-productive.
We have some research coming out soon on this, and interestingly, there doesn’t seem to be a big negative impact on public opinion if a protest is more illogical (e.g. it’s hard for observers to connect the actions of the protest with the goals of the group). The main driver seems to be how disruptive the protest is (e.g. blocking oil depots seems to have comparable effects to throwing soup) although the analysis here is still to be finalised.
Specifically, I think there are some random factors around luck, personal connections and timing that play a big role.
I don’t think that this is a point against DoTheMath. It’s just more information to learn from, but in this case learning that you can’t just copy the method (if they were lucky) or need to develop/find the right personal connections etc.
e.g. blocking oil depots seems to have comparable effects to throwing soup) although the analysis here is still to be finalised.
Interested to hear more, but I would not expect blocking oil depots to be effective either. Why would it? It may be related but its not so compelling to the average observer. Compare with the example I used, of sit-ins, which are eminently compelling. If you compare ineffective strategies with ineffective strategies you will pick up noise and low order effects.
Specifically, I think there are some random factors around luck, personal connections and timing that play a big role. For example, the founders of Extinction Rebellion tried some very similar campaigns a year before Extinction Rebellion launched, with no huge success. Then, a year later, Extinction Rebellion exploded globally.
I think we agree. Both for the successes and failures you should ask “was this a fluke?”, as you should always do.
Interested to hear more, but I would not expect blocking oil depots to be effective either. Why would it? It may be related but its not so compelling to the average observer. Compare with the example I used, of sit-ins, which are eminently compelling. If you compare ineffective strategies with ineffective strategies you will pick up noise and low order effects.
I think we agree. Both for the successes and failures you should ask “was this a fluke?”, as you should always do.
I may be being obtuse but are you implying that Extinction Rebellion was a fluke? As if so, I don’t agree with that! My view is that the founders had a pretty good design and plan, based on historical context and research, and with enough attempts, they managed to start something at the right time.
You are being obtuse, I know nothing about Extinction Rebellion! Maybe their success was a fluke, maybe their initial failures were a fluke! I don’t know. That’s why I said “Both for the successes and failures”.
Piggybacking off of this to say that I recently looked at a lot of scientific literature on protests (for this post, although that post doesn’t address the relevant evidence), and my current position is
there is only limited evidence on whether the “throwing soup at paintings” genre of protests is effective
if anything, the evidence suggests that it has a positive effect
I wouldn’t confidently say that it has a positive effect, but I certainly wouldn’t confidently say that’s counterproductive, either, because the (very weak) evidence goes the other direction.
I admit I don’t have peer-reviewed double-blind longitudinal randomized controlled trials testing the efficacy of attempting to destroy van gogh paintings as a sympathetic means of raising support for climate change. Only common sense.
I think this post is a bit too humble. The social movements that worked had reasons they worked. The structure of the problem, the allies they were likely to find, and the enemies they were likely to have resulted in the particular strategies they chose working. Similarly for the social movements which failed. These are reasons you can & should learn from, and your ability to look at those reasons is the largest order effect here.
Most movements don’t, they do what you describe, choose their favorite movement, and cargo-cult their way to failure.
The most clear-cut version of this are climate activists doing a civil disobedience.
Why did civil disobedience work during civil rights? Well there were laws which used disproportionate levels of ugly violence to prevent people from doing a variety of very peaceful acts such as sitting on certain seats. By breaking these laws, filming it, and peacefully accepting the consequences you can show both how horrible the law is, how nice your movement is in comparison to the status quo, and how devoted you are to your opinion on the subject by being a willing martyr.
Throwing soup at van gogh paintings have none of these attributes, so it is counter-productive.
I take the point about being too humble but I’m not sure I fully agree with this bit above! Specifically, I think there are some random factors around luck, personal connections and timing that play a big role. For example, the founders of Extinction Rebellion tried some very similar campaigns a year before Extinction Rebellion launched, with no huge success. Then, a year later, Extinction Rebellion exploded globally. Basically, I also think you can do everything “right” but still not succeed. That said, doing certain things do definitely increases your chances of success.
We have some research coming out soon on this, and interestingly, there doesn’t seem to be a big negative impact on public opinion if a protest is more illogical (e.g. it’s hard for observers to connect the actions of the protest with the goals of the group). The main driver seems to be how disruptive the protest is (e.g. blocking oil depots seems to have comparable effects to throwing soup) although the analysis here is still to be finalised.
I don’t think that this is a point against DoTheMath. It’s just more information to learn from, but in this case learning that you can’t just copy the method (if they were lucky) or need to develop/find the right personal connections etc.
Yeah basically my position.
Interested to hear more, but I would not expect blocking oil depots to be effective either. Why would it? It may be related but its not so compelling to the average observer. Compare with the example I used, of sit-ins, which are eminently compelling. If you compare ineffective strategies with ineffective strategies you will pick up noise and low order effects.
I think we agree. Both for the successes and failures you should ask “was this a fluke?”, as you should always do.
I mean there are probably a bunch of protests that you don’t think make sense that had positive impacts (see some here) but specifically I would point to Extinction Rebellion blocking roads about climate or Just Stop Oil doing something similar.
I may be being obtuse but are you implying that Extinction Rebellion was a fluke? As if so, I don’t agree with that! My view is that the founders had a pretty good design and plan, based on historical context and research, and with enough attempts, they managed to start something at the right time.
You are being obtuse, I know nothing about Extinction Rebellion! Maybe their success was a fluke, maybe their initial failures were a fluke! I don’t know. That’s why I said “Both for the successes and failures”.
Thanks for the links!
“Throwing soup at van gogh paintings have none of these attributes, so it is counter-productive.”
What’s the evidence it was counterproductive?
Piggybacking off of this to say that I recently looked at a lot of scientific literature on protests (for this post, although that post doesn’t address the relevant evidence), and my current position is
there is only limited evidence on whether the “throwing soup at paintings” genre of protests is effective
if anything, the evidence suggests that it has a positive effect
I wouldn’t confidently say that it has a positive effect, but I certainly wouldn’t confidently say that’s counterproductive, either, because the (very weak) evidence goes the other direction.
I admit I don’t have peer-reviewed double-blind longitudinal randomized controlled trials testing the efficacy of attempting to destroy van gogh paintings as a sympathetic means of raising support for climate change. Only common sense.