This seems to be true and also to be an emerging consensus (at least here on the forum).
Can you point to some examples?
I’ve only been forecasting for a few months, but it’s starting to seem to me like forecasting does have quite a lot of value...
This seems right to me. I think society as a whole underprices forecasting, and EA underprices a bunch of subniches within forecasting (even if they overrate predictive validity specifically).
Most of these cases are[...]purely imaginary[...]. We can use them to discover, not what the truth is, but what we believe
Similarly, I think of a lot of the value of inputting probabilities and distributions is as a way to have internal coherence/validity, to help represent/bring to the forefront of what I believe.
...and as a way of enforcing a common language around discussion of possible futures
This sounds right to me. Stefan Schubert has a fun comparison of forecasting and analytic philosophy.
Thanks for the comment!
Can you point to some examples?
This seems right to me. I think society as a whole underprices forecasting, and EA underprices a bunch of subniches within forecasting (even if they overrate predictive validity specifically).
I think this is right. I think to some degree, the value of forecasting is similar to what Parfit ascribes to thought experiments:
Similarly, I think of a lot of the value of inputting probabilities and distributions is as a way to have internal coherence/validity, to help represent/bring to the forefront of what I believe.
This sounds right to me. Stefan Schubert has a fun comparison of forecasting and analytic philosophy.