Agreed, I’ve been trying to help out a bit with Matt Barnett’s new question here. Feedback period is still open, so chime in if you have ideas!
I suspect most Metaculites are accustomed to paying attention to how a question’s operationalization deviates from its intent FWIW. Personally, I find the Montezuma’s revenge criterion quite important without which the question would be far from AGI.
My intent with bringing up this question, was more to ask about how Linch thinks about the reliability of long-term predictions with no obvious frequentist-friendly track record to look at.
Agreed, I’ve been trying to help out a bit with Matt Barnett’s new question here. Feedback period is still open, so chime in if you have ideas!
I suspect most Metaculites are accustomed to paying attention to how a question’s operationalization deviates from its intent FWIW. Personally, I find the Montezuma’s revenge criterion quite important without which the question would be far from AGI.
My intent with bringing up this question, was more to ask about how Linch thinks about the reliability of long-term predictions with no obvious frequentist-friendly track record to look at.