The google form link seems not to work.
I would be particularly interested to know if ‘technical AI academic’ meant just professors, or included post-docs/PhDs.
Also are we to assume that any non 1person*year annotated question meant causing to exist an entirely new career-up-to-doom/TAI worth of work?
The V-dem Metaculus market shows a clean time-series bump following recent Trump events https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14141/us-continuously-a-liberal-democracy/
This market, and metaculus in general, doesn’t have anywhere near the same frequency of market quality problems as Manifold. For readers, I’d advise against dismissing the OP’s headline concerns as some manifold measurement error (though those are also real enough and I agree with the specific claims made by Marcus).