Kind of a repetitive stream-of-consciousness response, but I found this both interesting as a philosophical idea and also annoying/cynical/bad-faith:
This is interesting but also, IMO, kind of a strawman—what’s being attacked is some very specific form of utilitarianism, wheras I think many/most “longtermists” are just interested in making sure that we get some kind of happy long-term future for humanity and are fuzzy about the details. Torres says that “Longtermists would surely argue...”, but I would like to see some real longtermists quoted as arguing this!!
Personally, I think that taking total-hedonic-utilitarianism 100% seriously is pretty dumb (if you keep doubling the number of happy people, eventually you get to such high numbers that it seems the moral value has to stop 2x-ing because you’ve got quadrillions of people living basically identical lives), but I still consider myself a longtermist, because I think society is underrating how bad it would be for a nuclear war or similar catastrophe to wreck civilization.
Personally I would also put some (although not overwhelming) weight on the continuity in World B on account of how it gives life more meaning (or at least it would mean that citizens of World B would be more similar to myself—like me, they too would plan for the future and think of themselves as being part of a civilization that extends through time, rather than World A which seems like it might develop a weird “nothing matters” culture that I’d find alienating). I think a lot of EAs would agree that something feels off about World A, although the extra 10 billion people is definitely a plus, and that overall it seems like an unsolved philosophical mystery whether it matters if your civilization is stretched out in time or not, or whether there is even an objective “right answer” to that question vs being a matter of purely personal taste. At the end of the day I’m very uncertain as to whether world A vs B is better; population ethics is just a really tricky subject to think about.
So this is a good thought experiment! But it seems pretty cynical to introduce this philosophical thought experiment and then: 1. say that your political opponents would obviously/unanimously endorse World A, when actually I think if you polled EAs you might get a pretty even split or they might favor World B. 2. say that this proves they “don’t actually care about the future at all”, despite the myriad real-world examples of EAs who are working hard to try and reduce long-term risks from climate change, pandemics, nuclear war, rouge AI, etc.
There is also maybe a bit of a sleight-of-hand in the fact that the total population in both scenarios is only 10-20 billion, which is much smaller than the total population of the best futures we could hope for. This makes the 20-billion-people-all-at-once World A scenario feel like an imminent end of the world (nuclear war in 2100, perhaps?), which makes it feel very bad.
But the only-1-million-people-alive-at-a-time scenario is also bad; Torres just doesn’t dwell on it! Maybe I should write an op-ed saying that Torres would “surely argue” in favor of stretching out modern human civilization, so that instead of all 8 billion of us hanging out together, 99.99% of us are in cryosleep at any given time and only a million humans are alive at any given time. I could write about how this proves that Torres “doesn’t really care about community or cultural diversity at all”, since such a small population would surely create much more of a monoculture than the present-day earth. Think about all the human connections and experiences (for example, the existence of communities built around very niche/rare hobbies, or the ability to go to a show and appreciate the talents of an artist/performer/athlete who’s “one-in-a-million”, or the experience of being in a big bustling city like New York, population 10m) that would be permanently ruled out in Torres’s scenario! (How would we decide who’s awake for each generation? Would we go by ethnicity—first all the Chinese people, then all the Italians, then all the Norwegians, and so forth? Surely it would make more sense to make each generation be a representative slice—but then you’d destroy very small ethnic groups, like for instance the extremely unique and low-population Hazda, by forcing only one member of the Hazda to be woken up every 8 generations! Would Torres “surely argue” in favor of this atrocity?!) But such attacks would be silly; it seems silly to attack people based on treating their opinions on really abstract unsolved philosophical questions, as if they were concrete political agendas? At the end of the day we’re all on the same side just trying to make sure that we don’t have a nuclear war; the abstract philosophy isn’t driving many actionable political disagreements.
Yeah, I totally agree with you. This writing style is kind of annoying/cynical/bad-faith. Still it really does raise an interesting point as you acknowledge. I just wish more of the EA community would be able to see both of these points, take the interesting point on board, and take the high road on the annoying/cynical/bad-faith aspect.
For me the key insight in this last section is that utilitarianism as generally understood does not have an appreciation of time at all, it just cares about sums of value. Thus, the title of the book is indeed pretty ironic because the position presented in it does not really care about the “future” per se but about how to collect more containers of value. It just happens that we currently believe that many multitudes of those containers of value could theoretically still be brought into being in the future (i.e., the potential of humanity). Thus, it sketches an understanding of what is good in the world that is a little bit like pac man, where the goal is to just go for as many dots as possible without being eaten. What does pac man owe the future? I have never really thought about it this way before but I think that’s not a totally unfair characterization. It reminds me of a similar critique of utilitarianism by Martha Nussbaum in her recent book “Justice for Animals”. So at least to me, this argument does seem to have some force and made me think about the relationship between utilitarianism and longtermism in a new light.
But I totally agree with you that we should all stop with this annoying/cynical/bad-faith style of arguing. We are all in this together. I think we can also all learn from each other. While I do fear that philosophy and worldviews can make actual differences and do significantly influence politics, this just makes it just all the more important that we start talking WITH rather than fight against each other. When I posted the link, I was hoping for the former and it looks like we made some of that happen after all :)
Thanks for engaging critically and being open minded even in the face of difficult content!
P.S. I think there are like 1-2 more interesting critiques/points in the post. One relating to the expressed view on animals and one regarding the assumed perspective on growth. Any interested reader is encouraged to hunt for them if they feel like it (maybe life is a little bit like pac man after all?).
You might enjoy “On the Survival of Humanity” (2017) by Johann Frick. Frick makes the same point there that you quote Torres as making—that total utilitarians care about the total number and quality of experiences but are indifferent to whether these experiences are simultaneous or extended across time. Torres has favorably cited Frick elsewhere, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they were inspired by this article. You can download it here: https://oar.princeton.edu/bitstream/88435/pr1rn3068s/1/OnTheSurvivalOfHumanity.pdf
Kind of a repetitive stream-of-consciousness response, but I found this both interesting as a philosophical idea and also annoying/cynical/bad-faith:
This is interesting but also, IMO, kind of a strawman—what’s being attacked is some very specific form of utilitarianism, wheras I think many/most “longtermists” are just interested in making sure that we get some kind of happy long-term future for humanity and are fuzzy about the details. Torres says that “Longtermists would surely argue...”, but I would like to see some real longtermists quoted as arguing this!!
Personally, I think that taking total-hedonic-utilitarianism 100% seriously is pretty dumb (if you keep doubling the number of happy people, eventually you get to such high numbers that it seems the moral value has to stop 2x-ing because you’ve got quadrillions of people living basically identical lives), but I still consider myself a longtermist, because I think society is underrating how bad it would be for a nuclear war or similar catastrophe to wreck civilization.
Personally I would also put some (although not overwhelming) weight on the continuity in World B on account of how it gives life more meaning (or at least it would mean that citizens of World B would be more similar to myself—like me, they too would plan for the future and think of themselves as being part of a civilization that extends through time, rather than World A which seems like it might develop a weird “nothing matters” culture that I’d find alienating). I think a lot of EAs would agree that something feels off about World A, although the extra 10 billion people is definitely a plus, and that overall it seems like an unsolved philosophical mystery whether it matters if your civilization is stretched out in time or not, or whether there is even an objective “right answer” to that question vs being a matter of purely personal taste. At the end of the day I’m very uncertain as to whether world A vs B is better; population ethics is just a really tricky subject to think about.
So this is a good thought experiment! But it seems pretty cynical to introduce this philosophical thought experiment and then:
1. say that your political opponents would obviously/unanimously endorse World A, when actually I think if you polled EAs you might get a pretty even split or they might favor World B.
2. say that this proves they “don’t actually care about the future at all”, despite the myriad real-world examples of EAs who are working hard to try and reduce long-term risks from climate change, pandemics, nuclear war, rouge AI, etc.
There is also maybe a bit of a sleight-of-hand in the fact that the total population in both scenarios is only 10-20 billion, which is much smaller than the total population of the best futures we could hope for. This makes the 20-billion-people-all-at-once World A scenario feel like an imminent end of the world (nuclear war in 2100, perhaps?), which makes it feel very bad.
But the only-1-million-people-alive-at-a-time scenario is also bad; Torres just doesn’t dwell on it! Maybe I should write an op-ed saying that Torres would “surely argue” in favor of stretching out modern human civilization, so that instead of all 8 billion of us hanging out together, 99.99% of us are in cryosleep at any given time and only a million humans are alive at any given time. I could write about how this proves that Torres “doesn’t really care about community or cultural diversity at all”, since such a small population would surely create much more of a monoculture than the present-day earth. Think about all the human connections and experiences (for example, the existence of communities built around very niche/rare hobbies, or the ability to go to a show and appreciate the talents of an artist/performer/athlete who’s “one-in-a-million”, or the experience of being in a big bustling city like New York, population 10m) that would be permanently ruled out in Torres’s scenario! (How would we decide who’s awake for each generation? Would we go by ethnicity—first all the Chinese people, then all the Italians, then all the Norwegians, and so forth? Surely it would make more sense to make each generation be a representative slice—but then you’d destroy very small ethnic groups, like for instance the extremely unique and low-population Hazda, by forcing only one member of the Hazda to be woken up every 8 generations! Would Torres “surely argue” in favor of this atrocity?!) But such attacks would be silly; it seems silly to attack people based on treating their opinions on really abstract unsolved philosophical questions, as if they were concrete political agendas? At the end of the day we’re all on the same side just trying to make sure that we don’t have a nuclear war; the abstract philosophy isn’t driving many actionable political disagreements.
Yeah, I totally agree with you. This writing style is kind of annoying/cynical/bad-faith. Still it really does raise an interesting point as you acknowledge. I just wish more of the EA community would be able to see both of these points, take the interesting point on board, and take the high road on the annoying/cynical/bad-faith aspect.
For me the key insight in this last section is that utilitarianism as generally understood does not have an appreciation of time at all, it just cares about sums of value. Thus, the title of the book is indeed pretty ironic because the position presented in it does not really care about the “future” per se but about how to collect more containers of value. It just happens that we currently believe that many multitudes of those containers of value could theoretically still be brought into being in the future (i.e., the potential of humanity). Thus, it sketches an understanding of what is good in the world that is a little bit like pac man, where the goal is to just go for as many dots as possible without being eaten. What does pac man owe the future? I have never really thought about it this way before but I think that’s not a totally unfair characterization. It reminds me of a similar critique of utilitarianism by Martha Nussbaum in her recent book “Justice for Animals”. So at least to me, this argument does seem to have some force and made me think about the relationship between utilitarianism and longtermism in a new light.
But I totally agree with you that we should all stop with this annoying/cynical/bad-faith style of arguing. We are all in this together. I think we can also all learn from each other. While I do fear that philosophy and worldviews can make actual differences and do significantly influence politics, this just makes it just all the more important that we start talking WITH rather than fight against each other. When I posted the link, I was hoping for the former and it looks like we made some of that happen after all :)
Thanks for engaging critically and being open minded even in the face of difficult content!
P.S. I think there are like 1-2 more interesting critiques/points in the post. One relating to the expressed view on animals and one regarding the assumed perspective on growth. Any interested reader is encouraged to hunt for them if they feel like it (maybe life is a little bit like pac man after all?).
You might enjoy “On the Survival of Humanity” (2017) by Johann Frick. Frick makes the same point there that you quote Torres as making—that total utilitarians care about the total number and quality of experiences but are indifferent to whether these experiences are simultaneous or extended across time. Torres has favorably cited Frick elsewhere, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they were inspired by this article. You can download it here: https://oar.princeton.edu/bitstream/88435/pr1rn3068s/1/OnTheSurvivalOfHumanity.pdf