I think the short of it is that trying to model the counterfactual impact of a reduction in diabetes prevalence on reduced COVID-19 burden would be too tough, relying as it does not just on complex epidemiological modelling but also inherently unknowable future scenarios. None of the experts we talked to raised this as a live issue, in any case, so my assumption was that post 2020-2022 it’s not that significant compared to the global disease burden of DMT2 itself, especially on a long term basis.
I think the short of it is that trying to model the counterfactual impact of a reduction in diabetes prevalence on reduced COVID-19 burden would be too tough, relying as it does not just on complex epidemiological modelling but also inherently unknowable future scenarios. None of the experts we talked to raised this as a live issue, in any case, so my assumption was that post 2020-2022 it’s not that significant compared to the global disease burden of DMT2 itself, especially on a long term basis.