EDIT: reading the full report, the 0.02% reduction in diabetes burden is from eliminating sugary drink consumption in a single country. I’ve updated my comments below to correct for that
Overall, we expect a 100% reduction in sugar-sweetened beverages consumption in a single country to reduce the global disease burden of diabetes mellitus type 2 by 0.02%.
I’m also confused here, but I get different numbers than you do.
My BOTEC:
For 100% elimination of sugary beverages in all countries, the benefits seem like they’d be 0.0002*193*90,000,000 = 3,474,00 DALYs averted /​year
For 100% elimination of sugary drinks, the costs in reduced freedom seem like they’d be 8,100,000,000 * 0.001 = 8,100,000 DALYs/​year
Sounds like you roughly agree with me − 8.1 /​ 3.5 = 230%, which is close to 167%. Difference is I use the 5% reduction number for proportion of burden due to sugary drinks, getting 90 mil /​ 20 = 4.5 mil, 8.1 /​ 4.5 = 180%, and the rest is error built into these calcs.
Another way to look at this is that according to the report’s numbers, a 100% reduction in sugary beverages would prevent 0.02%*193 = 1 in 26 cases of diabetes. But it would also make life 1/​1000th worse for everyone.
EDIT: reading the full report, the 0.02% reduction in diabetes burden is from eliminating sugary drink consumption in a single country. I’ve updated my comments below to correct for that
I’m also confused here, but I get different numbers than you do.
My BOTEC:
For 100% elimination of sugary beverages in all countries, the benefits seem like they’d be 0.0002*193*90,000,000 = 3,474,00 DALYs averted /​year
For 100% elimination of sugary drinks, the costs in reduced freedom seem like they’d be 8,100,000,000 * 0.001 = 8,100,000 DALYs/​year
So this looks net negative in expectation
Sounds like you roughly agree with me − 8.1 /​ 3.5 = 230%, which is close to 167%. Difference is I use the 5% reduction number for proportion of burden due to sugary drinks, getting 90 mil /​ 20 = 4.5 mil, 8.1 /​ 4.5 = 180%, and the rest is error built into these calcs.
Gotcha, makes sense!
Another way to look at this is that according to the report’s numbers, a 100% reduction in sugary beverages would prevent 0.02%*193 = 1 in 26 cases of diabetes. But it would also make life 1/​1000th worse for everyone.