Wait: your survey numbers are for DALYs lost per year. So if the disease burden is 90 million DALYs per year, banning sugary drinks gives a benefit of 0.0006 DALYs per person-year, compared to 0.001 DALYs lost per person-year, meaning that the loss of freedom reduces the benefit by 167% (or 500% if you believe this comment). So now I’m really curious how your adjustments are bringing that down so much.
EDIT: reading the full report, the 0.02% reduction in diabetes burden is from eliminating sugary drink consumption in a single country. I’ve updated my comments below to correct for that
Overall, we expect a 100% reduction in sugar-sweetened beverages consumption in a single country to reduce the global disease burden of diabetes mellitus type 2 by 0.02%.
I’m also confused here, but I get different numbers than you do.
My BOTEC:
For 100% elimination of sugary beverages in all countries, the benefits seem like they’d be 0.0002*193*90,000,000 = 3,474,00 DALYs averted /year
For 100% elimination of sugary drinks, the costs in reduced freedom seem like they’d be 8,100,000,000 * 0.001 = 8,100,000 DALYs/year
Sounds like you roughly agree with me − 8.1 / 3.5 = 230%, which is close to 167%. Difference is I use the 5% reduction number for proportion of burden due to sugary drinks, getting 90 mil / 20 = 4.5 mil, 8.1 / 4.5 = 180%, and the rest is error built into these calcs.
Another way to look at this is that according to the report’s numbers, a 100% reduction in sugary beverages would prevent 0.02%*193 = 1 in 26 cases of diabetes. But it would also make life 1/1000th worse for everyone.
Wait: your survey numbers are for DALYs lost per year. So if the disease burden is 90 million DALYs per year, banning sugary drinks gives a benefit of 0.0006 DALYs per person-year, compared to 0.001 DALYs lost per person-year, meaning that the loss of freedom reduces the benefit by 167% (or 500% if you believe this comment). So now I’m really curious how your adjustments are bringing that down so much.
EDIT: reading the full report, the 0.02% reduction in diabetes burden is from eliminating sugary drink consumption in a single country. I’ve updated my comments below to correct for that
I’m also confused here, but I get different numbers than you do.
My BOTEC:
For 100% elimination of sugary beverages in all countries, the benefits seem like they’d be 0.0002*193*90,000,000 = 3,474,00 DALYs averted /year
For 100% elimination of sugary drinks, the costs in reduced freedom seem like they’d be 8,100,000,000 * 0.001 = 8,100,000 DALYs/year
So this looks net negative in expectation
Sounds like you roughly agree with me − 8.1 / 3.5 = 230%, which is close to 167%. Difference is I use the 5% reduction number for proportion of burden due to sugary drinks, getting 90 mil / 20 = 4.5 mil, 8.1 / 4.5 = 180%, and the rest is error built into these calcs.
Gotcha, makes sense!
Another way to look at this is that according to the report’s numbers, a 100% reduction in sugary beverages would prevent 0.02%*193 = 1 in 26 cases of diabetes. But it would also make life 1/1000th worse for everyone.