I think your model has MUCH more plausible numbers after the edit, but on a more technical level, I still think a linear model that far out is not ideal here. We would expect diminishing marginal returns well before we hit an increase in spending by a factor of 10.
Probably much better to estimate based on “cost per vote” (like you did below), and then use something like Silver’s estimates for marginal probability of a vote changing an election.
To be clear, I have nothing against linear models and use them regularly.
Thanks for the edit! :) I appreciate it.
I think your model has MUCH more plausible numbers after the edit, but on a more technical level, I still think a linear model that far out is not ideal here. We would expect diminishing marginal returns well before we hit an increase in spending by a factor of 10.
Probably much better to estimate based on “cost per vote” (like you did below), and then use something like Silver’s estimates for marginal probability of a vote changing an election.
To be clear, I have nothing against linear models and use them regularly.