I mean, it seems to me like a striking “throw a ball in the air and have it land and balance perfectly on a needle” kind of coincidence to end at exactly — or indistinguishably close to — 50⁄50 (or at any other position of complete agnosticism, e.g. even if one rejects precise credences).
I don’t see how this critique applies to imprecise credences. Imprecise credences by definition don’t say “exactly 50⁄50.”
it seems to me like a striking … kind of coincidence to end at exactly — or indistinguishably close to — … any position of complete agnosticism
That is, I think it tends to apply to complete and perfect agnosticism in general, even if one doesn’t frame or formulate things in terms of 50⁄50 or the like. (Edit: But to clarify, I think it’s less striking the less one has thought about a given choice and the less the options under consideration differ in character; so I think there are many situations in which practically complete agnosticism is reasonable.)
I don’t see how this critique applies to imprecise credences. Imprecise credences by definition don’t say “exactly 50⁄50.”
This is what I meant:
That is, I think it tends to apply to complete and perfect agnosticism in general, even if one doesn’t frame or formulate things in terms of 50⁄50 or the like. (Edit: But to clarify, I think it’s less striking the less one has thought about a given choice and the less the options under consideration differ in character; so I think there are many situations in which practically complete agnosticism is reasonable.)